INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
NYLATYOBERLON
THU · SEP 10, 2026
SEP 10
FinalFinal lineupsNL West / NL Central

Arizona Diamondbacks   vs   Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

July 27, 2026

Starting pitchers, lineup status, recent form, weather and current moneyline context at PNC Park.

6:40 PM ET · PNC ParkStats updated Jul 27, 6:45 PM ETFinal lineups lockedLast update Jul 27, 6:07 PM ET
T-Score51
Arizona Diamondbacks
78–69 · 3rd NL West · T-Score 51
2
2–3
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
73–73 · 3rd NL Central · T-Score 61
3
T-Score61
FINALAZ +103 · PIT −112 · Total 9.5
AZ +103 · PIT −112 · Total 9.5Last update Jul 27, 6:07 PM ET

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherPiratesKeller leads Kelly in P-Score (41 vs 32), WHIP and K/9.
Offense vs handPiratesPittsburgh has produced the stronger offense against right-handed pitching.
LineupPiratesPittsburgh's official lineup includes 4 left-handed bats against the opposing starter.
Starter formDiamondbacksKelly has a 3.54 ERA over his last five starts, while Keller is at 4.85.
PowerPiratesPittsburgh has 135 home runs this season, 32 more than Arizona.

Starting pitchers

AZ
Merrill Kelly RHP
Merrill Kelly
Arizona Diamondbacks
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
5.06
165th
WHIP
1.47
186th
K/9
6.03
206th
BB/9
3.90
166th
P-Score32i
FIP
5.49
HR/9
1.65
193rd
OPS/R
0.751
IP
147.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA6.10
Road ERA4.36
Last 5 starts
ERA
3.54
QUALITY
START %
20%
(1 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
PIT
Mitch Keller RHP
Mitch Keller
Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
5.29
181st
WHIP
1.37
147th
K/9
6.93
171st
BB/9
3.27
124th
P-Score41i
FIP
4.54
HR/9
1.17
108th
OPS/R
0.614
IP
115.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA5.48
Road ERA5.05
Last 5 starts
ERA
4.85
QUALITY
START %
40%
(2 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
How the starters differ
·Keller owns the lower FIP, 4.54 to 5.49.
·Keller allows the lower home-run rate: 1.17 vs 1.65 per nine.
·The WHIP gap favors Keller, 1.37 to 1.47.
·Keller has produced a quality start in 40% of outings versus 20%.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
MetricKellyKellerNote
ERA−121123Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average.
FIP5.494.54
WAR-0.31.0Season value.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Kelly arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Changeup28%88.5
Four-seam27%92.1
Cutter13%91.0
Curveball12%82.5
Slider10%86.3
Sinker10%92.3
Keller arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam32%93.3
Sinker17%92.3
Sweeper16%82.0
Slider10%87.2
Curveball9%77.8
Changeup9%88.7
Cutter7%89.7

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Diamondbacks vs RHP (Mitch Keller)
29th
in MLB
0.682OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Pirates vs RHP (Merrill Kelly)
3rd
in MLB
0.756OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page →
Arizona DiamondbacksOfficial lineupvs RHP Mitch Keller
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Keller (BvP)
1Corbin CarrollLRF81.80019.733No MLB historyNo history
2Geraldo PerdomoSSS62.7239.732No MLB historyNo history
3Gabriel MorenoRC80.84112.864No MLB historyNo history
4Ketel MarteS2B77.76122.706No MLB historyNo history
5Max KeplerLLF39.5652.539No MLB historyNo history
6Tyler LocklearR1B—.8011.879No MLB historyNo history
7Adrian Del CastilloLDH34.5625.615No MLB historyNo history
8Ildemaro VargasS1B53.6739.589No MLB historyNo history
9Ryan WaldschmidtRCF45.6993.662No MLB historyNo history
1Corbin Carroll RF · L.240 / .800 · 19 HRvs hand .733 · No MLB history · No history81H-Score2Geraldo Perdomo SS · S.250 / .723 · 9 HRvs hand .732 · No MLB history · No history62H-Score3Gabriel Moreno C · R.299 / .841 · 12 HRvs hand .864 · No MLB history · No history80H-Score4Ketel Marte 2B · S.251 / .761 · 22 HRvs hand .706 · No MLB history · No history77H-Score5Max Kepler LF · L.205 / .565 · 2 HRvs hand .539 · No MLB history · No history39H-Score6Tyler Locklear 1B · R.278 / .801 · 1 HRvs hand .879 · No MLB history · No history—H-Score7Adrian Del Castillo DH · L.196 / .562 · 5 HRvs hand .615 · No MLB history · No history34H-Score8Ildemaro Vargas 1B · S.251 / .673 · 9 HRvs hand .589 · No MLB history · No history53H-Score9Ryan Waldschmidt CF · R.263 / .699 · 3 HRvs hand .662 · No MLB history · No history45H-Score
Pittsburgh PiratesOfficial lineupvs RHP Merrill Kelly
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Kelly (BvP)
1Jake MangumSCF46.7164.733No MLB historyNo history
2Brandon LoweL2B77.80729.898No MLB historyNo history
3Bryan ReynoldsSLF80.80016.790No MLB historyNo history
4Esmerlyn ValdezRRF76.86617.761No MLB historyNo history
5Ryan O'HearnLRF65.78817.859No MLB historyNo history
6Nick GonzalesR3B58.7606.807No MLB historyNo history
7Jacob GonzalezLSS45.6346.691No MLB historyNo history
8Tyler CallihanLLF35.6723.613No MLB historyNo history
9Henry DavisRC50.5709.656No MLB historyNo history
1Jake Mangum CF · S.286 / .716 · 4 HRvs hand .733 · No MLB history · No history46H-Score2Brandon Lowe 2B · L.259 / .807 · 29 HRvs hand .898 · No MLB history · No history77H-Score3Bryan Reynolds LF · S.266 / .800 · 16 HRvs hand .790 · No MLB history · No history80H-Score4Esmerlyn Valdez RF · R.235 / .866 · 17 HRvs hand .761 · No MLB history · No history76H-Score5Ryan O'Hearn RF · L.270 / .788 · 17 HRvs hand .859 · No MLB history · No history65H-Score6Nick Gonzales 3B · R.305 / .760 · 6 HRvs hand .807 · No MLB history · No history58H-Score7Jacob Gonzalez SS · L.223 / .634 · 6 HRvs hand .691 · No MLB history · No history45H-Score8Tyler Callihan LF · L.211 / .672 · 3 HRvs hand .613 · No MLB history · No history35H-Score9Henry Davis C · R.169 / .570 · 9 HRvs hand .656 · No MLB history · No history50H-Score

Team comparison

OffenseAZAZ·PITPIT
AVG.242 19th.254 4th
OPS.707 22nd.734 7th
Home runs143 26th167 15th
Runs648 18th707 5th
OBP.314 20th.331 4th
SLG.393 24th.403 14th
PitchingAZAZ·PITPIT
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.10vs4.15
AZPIT
WHIP1.28vs1.30
AZPIT
K/97.0vs9.3
AZPIT
HR Allowed165vs141
AZPIT
BullpenAZAZ·PITPIT
1stMLB rank30th
Bullpen ERA3.94vs4.18
no league rank
Saves37vs32
AZPIT
ResultsAZAZ·PITPIT
+19715th
Run differential
+21012th
78–69 Record73–73
6–4 Last 105–5
Last 10 games
Arizona Diamondbacks (6–4)
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
L
Pittsburgh Pirates (5–5)
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
2—4
6 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Diamondbacks?+
Merrill Kelly (5.12 ERA, 8–8) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Pirates?+
Mitch Keller (4.90 ERA, 6–7) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
6:40 PM ET at PNC Park.
Where is the game being played?+
PNC Park, home of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
What is the current moneyline?+
AZ +103 · PIT −112 · Total 9.5. Lines are informational only.
What is the current total?+
The total is 9.5, opened at 9. Lines are informational.
How have the Diamondbacks and Pirates performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Pirates 4–2 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Merrill Kelly is at 32; Mitch Keller is at 41. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.