New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (2026-06-12). Ryan Weathers vs Trey Yesavage at Rogers Centre.

Ryan Weathers, the Yankees' left-hander, enters this contest with a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 70 innings pitched across 12 starts this season. His strikeout rate is strong at 10.16 K/9, complemented by a respectable 2.57 BB/9, indicating generally good command. However, his recent performance trend is noted as "flat" with a quality start percentage of 33.3, suggesting inconsistency in deeper outings. Reviewing his last five starts, Weathers has displayed a wide range of outcomes, including an impressive 8-inning, 1-earned-run outing against the Athletics and a 7.1-inning, 0-earned-run gem against the Royals, demonstrating his high ceiling. Conversely, he also recorded a 3.2-inning, 3-earned-run start against the Marlins and a 5-inning, 5-earned-run performance against the Angels, underscoring the variability in his recent form. The 1.67 HR/9 rate is also a concern against a Yankees lineup that hits for power.

Opposing him is Trey Yesavage, the Blue Jays' right-hander, who has compiled a 3.16 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 42.2 innings across 8 starts. Yesavage's K/9 of 9.28 is solid, though his BB/9 of 4.01 is notably higher than Weathers', indicating potential control challenges despite his strong ERA. His "down" trend in ERA suggests improvement, and his quality start percentage also stands at 33.3. Yesavage's recent five starts show a remarkable stretch of effectiveness, with his ERA staying consistently low, culminating in a dominant 6-inning, 0-earned-run performance against the New York Yankees in his most recent outing, where he struck out 8 batters without issuing a walk. This recent mastery, particularly against this specific opponent, provides a significant data point for this matchup, despite his season-long walk rate. His low 0.42 HR/9 rate is a major asset, limiting damage.

The New York Yankees' offense presents a formidable challenge, boasting a season OPS of 0.763, supported by a 0.243 batting average and 0.330 on-base percentage. They have generated 342 runs and hit 97 home runs, indicating a potent lineup capable of scoring in bunches and leveraging power. On the pitching side, the Yankees maintain a strong collective ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.17, with a K/9 of 8.69, suggesting an overall well-rounded team that excels at both run production and prevention. In contrast, the Toronto Blue Jays' offense has been less productive, with a season OPS of 0.699, a 0.249 batting average, and a 0.313 on-base percentage. They have scored 281 runs and hit 65 home runs, indicating a comparatively lower power output and overall run-scoring efficiency. The Blue Jays' pitching staff holds a team ERA of 4.07 and a WHIP of 1.27, with a K/9 of 9.09. While their strikeout rate is competitive, the higher ERA and WHIP suggest more vulnerability compared to their opponents, particularly in limiting baserunners and preventing runs.

Recent head-to-head history between these two clubs from the 2025 season shows the Toronto Blue Jays holding an 8-5 advantage over the New York Yankees across 13 contests. Notably, the Blue Jays had a strong run in July 2025, winning multiple games against the Yankees, often with elevated scores. However, the most recent series in September 2025 saw the Yankees win two out of three games, suggesting a fluctuating dynamic in this rivalry. The total line for this contest is set at 8.0 runs.

Away batters vs Trey Yesavage (RHP): Trent Grisham has a perfect 1-for-1 record against Trey Yesavage, posting a 3.000 OPS in their prior matchup. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has a hit, going 1-for-2 with a 1.000 OPS. However, several other batters have struggled against Yesavage, including Ben Rice, who is hitless in three at-bats with a .000 OPS. Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, Spencer Jones, and Ryan McMahon are also hitless in their limited plate appearances, each with a .000 OPS. José Caballero and J.C. Escarra have no MLB history against Yesavage.

Home batters vs Ryan Weathers (LHP): George Springer has performed well against Ryan Weathers, going 2-for-3 with an impressive 2.334 OPS in their previous encounters. Ernie Clement is 1-for-5 with a 1.000 OPS, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 1-for-5 in six plate appearances, holding a .533 OPS. Kazuma Okamoto, Myles Straw, and Andrés Giménez each have a hit in three at-bats, all with a .666 OPS. Player 676914 is hitless in five at-bats against Weathers, recording a .000 OPS. Player 672386 and Nathan Lukes have no MLB history versus Ryan Weathers.

Takeaway: The home lineup features more batters with prior at-bats against the opposing starter, Ryan Weathers, compared to the away lineup facing Trey Yesavage.