Matchup at a glance
PitcherStat calculationCategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherRedsCincinnati has the stronger starting-pitcher profile: Burns leads in P-Score, WHIP and K/9.
Offense vs handAstrosHouston has produced the stronger offense against right-handed pitching.
Team strengthAstrosHouston leads 50–29 in T-Score, driven by stronger offense.
Starting pitchers
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
How the starters differ
·Burns owns the lower FIP, 3.17 to 5.46.
·Burns strikes out 2.2 more batters per nine innings.
·Burns allows fewer baserunners, with a 1.17 WHIP compared with 1.38.
·Burns allows the lower home-run rate: 0.99 vs 1.46 per nine.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
| Metric | Arrighetti | Burns | Note |
|---|
| ERA− | 126 | 65 | Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average. |
| FIP | 5.46 | 3.17 | |
| WAR | -0.1 | 4.4 | Season value. |
How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix
Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.
Arrighetti arsenal
| Pitch | Usage | Velo |
|---|
| Curveball | 34% | 76.5 |
| Four-seam | 29% | 92.4 |
| Sweeper | 12% | 79.7 |
| Sinker | 10% | 92.2 |
| Changeup | 7% | 84.2 |
| Cutter | 7% | 87.8 |
| Slider | 1% | 82.2 |
Burns arsenal
| Pitch | Usage | Velo |
|---|
| Four-seam | 56% | 97.6 |
| Slider | 39% | 90.2 |
| Changeup | 5% | 90.1 |
| Sinker | 0% | 97.0 |
| Curveball | 0% | 81.9 |
Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand
0.730OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
0.690OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Lineups
Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page Lineups not announced
Neither club has posted a batting order. Handedness composition, H-Score leaders and batter-vs-pitcher samples appear here as soon as the first order is filed — typically two to three hours before first pitch.
Team comparison
Results
HOU·
CIN+23817th
Run differential
+10729th
Frequently asked
Who is starting for the Astros?+
Spencer Arrighetti is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Reds?+
Chase Burns is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
4:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Great American Ball Park, home of the Cincinnati Reds.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not yet. Orders appear here when they are posted.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Spencer Arrighetti is at 38; Chase Burns is at 69. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.