New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (2026-06-25). Cam Schlittler vs Connelly Early at Fenway Park.
Cam Schlittler enters this matchup with a dominant 1.71 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 95 innings pitched across 16 starts this season, demonstrating exceptional control with a 10.33 K/9 and a remarkably low 1.71 BB/9. His recent performance indicates a downward trend in ERA, maintaining a stable alternating pattern, and he boasts a 50% quality start percentage with zero blow-up outings. Connelly Early, in contrast, holds a 3.64 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 81.2 innings over 15 starts, exhibiting a lower strikeout rate of 8.71 K/9 and a higher walk rate of 3.42 BB/9. Early's ERA also shows a downward trend, with a stable alternating pattern, but his quality start percentage is a more modest 33.3%.
The Yankees' offense is significantly more potent, evidenced by their 0.766 OPS, 400 runs scored, and 119 home runs, compared to the Red Sox's 0.697 OPS, 307 runs, and 67 home runs. On the pitching side, New York's staff has a superior 3.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, allowing only 70 home runs, while Boston's team ERA stands at 3.82 with a 1.27 WHIP and 84 home runs allowed. The Yankees have been in strong form, winning seven of their last ten games, whereas the Red Sox have struggled, losing seven of their last ten.
Recent head-to-head contests between these two teams in 2025 saw the Red Sox win 9 of 13 games, with many of those games featuring higher scoring outcomes. The total line for this game is set at 7.5, which, considering Schlittler's elite pitching metrics and the Yankees' strong offensive capabilities, suggests an expectation of a moderately low-scoring affair, potentially driven by Schlittler's ability to suppress runs and the Red Sox's less impactful offense. However, Early's higher ERA and the historical head-to-head results could introduce variability.
Away batters facing Connelly Early have limited history, with Paul Goldschmidt, Jasson Domínguez, and Anthony Volpe having no MLB history against this pitcher. Ben Rice, Amed Rosario, and Cody Bellinger are all hitless in two at-bats across three plate appearances, each with an OPS of .333. Austin Wells is also hitless in two at-bats, with an OPS of .000. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and José Caballero have both found success, each going one-for-two with a .500 average and a 1.000 OPS.
Home batters have more extensive history against Cam Schlittler. Masataka Yoshida is hitless in five at-bats, with an OPS of .000, and Caleb Durbin is also hitless in five at-bats with an OPS of .000. Jarren Duran has struggled, going one-for-seven with a .143 average and a .286 OPS. Willson Contreras is one-for-six with a .167 average and a .500 OPS, while Wilyer Abreu is one-for-five in six plate appearances with a .200 average and a .533 OPS. Marcelo Mayer is one-for-five with a .200 average and a .600 OPS. Ceddanne Rafaela has a .333 average, going two-for-six with a .666 OPS. Carlos Narváez is one-for-three with a .333 average and a 1.666 OPS. Anthony Seigler has performed well, going one-for-one in two plate appearances with a 1.000 average and a 3.000 OPS.
The home team's lineup has significantly more prior plate appearances and at-bats against the opposing starter compared to the away team, which features several batters with no MLB history against Connelly Early.
