Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (2026-06-25). Matthew Boyd vs Freddy Peralta at Citi Field.
Matthew Boyd enters this contest with a 6.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 24 innings pitched this season, indicating struggles with run prevention despite a solid 11.63 K/9. His recent starts show an upward trend in ERA, coupled with a low 20% quality start percentage and a 20% blow-up rate, suggesting inconsistency and vulnerability to big innings. Freddy Peralta, in contrast, holds a 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 85.2 innings, featuring a lower 8.72 K/9 but a more stable recent performance without any blow-up starts. Both pitchers exhibit an upward trend in their ERA metrics, but Peralta has logged significantly more innings and starts, providing a larger sample size of his performance.
The Cubs' offense demonstrates a stronger overall profile with a .744 OPS, scoring 395 runs on the season, supported by a .338 OBP and 95 home runs. Their pitching staff maintains a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 121 home runs, suggesting a capable but not dominant unit. The Mets' offense lags behind, posting a .674 OPS and 325 runs, with a lower .298 OBP and 90 home runs. Their pitching staff is slightly better in terms of ERA at 4.22 and WHIP at 1.29, but their offense's lower production could put more pressure on their starters.
Recent head-to-head matchups between these two teams in 2025 show a fairly even split, with the Mets holding a slight edge of four wins to the Cubs' two. These games often featured moderate to high scoring, with scores like 8-5, 3-10, and 9-7. The total line of 8.5 for this game appears to align with the historical scoring patterns and the current pitching matchup, considering both starters have ERAs above 4.80 and the Cubs possess a potent offense.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has a strong history against Peralta, going 5-for-13 in 15 plate appearances with a 1.121 OPS. Michael Conforto also has a solid .300 average and .817 OPS in 12 plate appearances. However, several other batters have struggled, including Ian Happ, who is 3-for-34 in 41 plate appearances with a .509 OPS, and Dansby Swanson, who is 2-for-22 in 24 plate appearances with a .394 OPS. Michael Busch is 2-for-19 in 23 plate appearances with a .682 OPS, while Nico Hoerner is 5-for-31 in 34 plate appearances with a .590 OPS. Alex Bregman is 2-for-8 in 9 plate appearances with a .583 OPS, and Miguel Amaya is 2-for-9 in 10 plate appearances with a .522 OPS. Pedro Ramírez has no MLB history against Freddy Peralta.
Bo Bichette has performed well against Boyd, going 2-for-5 with a 1.400 OPS. Mark Vientos also has a 2-for-5 record with a 1.400 OPS. Francisco Alvarez is 1-for-1 in 2 plate appearances with a 5.000 OPS, including a walk. Juan Soto is 1-for-8 in 9 plate appearances with a .722 OPS. MJ Melendez is hitless in 2 at-bats across 2 plate appearances with a .000 OPS. Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty have no MLB history against Matthew Boyd.
Takeaway: The away lineup has more batters with extensive prior history against the opposing starter, Freddy Peralta, compared to the home lineup against Matthew Boyd.
