Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (2026-06-25). Matthew Boyd vs Freddy Peralta at Citi Field.

Matthew Boyd enters this contest with a 6.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 24 innings pitched this season, indicating struggles with run prevention despite a solid 11.63 K/9. His recent starts show an upward trend in ERA, coupled with a low 20% quality start percentage and a 20% blow-up rate, suggesting inconsistency and vulnerability to big innings. Freddy Peralta, in contrast, holds a 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 85.2 innings, featuring a lower 8.72 K/9 but a more stable recent performance without any blow-up starts. Both pitchers exhibit an upward trend in their ERA metrics, but Peralta has logged significantly more innings and starts, providing a larger sample size of his performance.

The Cubs' offense demonstrates a stronger overall profile with a .744 OPS, scoring 395 runs on the season, supported by a .338 OBP and 95 home runs. Their pitching staff maintains a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 121 home runs, suggesting a capable but not dominant unit. The Mets' offense lags behind, posting a .674 OPS and 325 runs, with a lower .298 OBP and 90 home runs. Their pitching staff is slightly better in terms of ERA at 4.22 and WHIP at 1.29, but their offense's lower production could put more pressure on their starters.

Recent head-to-head matchups between these two teams in 2025 show a fairly even split, with the Mets holding a slight edge of four wins to the Cubs' two. These games often featured moderate to high scoring, with scores like 8-5, 3-10, and 9-7. The total line of 8.5 for this game appears to align with the historical scoring patterns and the current pitching matchup, considering both starters have ERAs above 4.80 and the Cubs possess a potent offense.