New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (2026-06-28). Carlos Rodón vs Sonny Gray at Fenway Park.

Carlos Rodón enters this contest with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 41.1 innings pitched this season, featuring a strong 10.02 K/9 but also a concerning 4.79 BB/9. His recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, though his last five starts indicate a period of improved control and effectiveness, culminating in a 2.88 ERA over his last five outings, with his walk rate improving significantly in his most recent starts. Sonny Gray, in contrast, boasts a more impressive 2.95 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 76.1 innings, supported by a lower 7.78 K/9 and a more disciplined 2.36 BB/9. Gray's ERA has also trended upwards recently, and his last five starts show a mixed bag of results, including a couple of shorter outings with higher earned run totals, suggesting some inconsistency in his recent form despite his solid season-long numbers.

The Yankees offense presents a formidable challenge, leading in runs scored with 405 and boasting a superior OPS of 0.756, significantly higher than the Red Sox's 0.700. New York also demonstrates more power with 121 home runs compared to Boston's 71, and a higher walk rate, indicating better plate discipline. On the pitching side, the Yankees' staff holds an advantage with a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, outperforming the Red Sox's 3.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Boston's recent form has been concerning, with a string of losses, while New York has shown more consistency, winning seven of their last ten games.

Looking at the head-to-head history from the 2025 season, the Red Sox held a significant edge over the Yankees, winning nine of their thirteen matchups. The total line for this game is set at 7.5 runs, which appears to align with the pitching matchup, considering Rodón's recent improvement and Gray's generally strong season-long performance. However, the Yankees' potent offense against Gray, combined with Rodón's higher walk rate potentially leading to baserunners, suggests that the total could be tested.