Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-06-11). Justin Wrobleski vs Mitch Keller at PNC Park.

Justin Wrobleski, the Los Angeles Dodgers' left-handed starter, brings a robust season ERA of 2.62 and an excellent 1.00 WHIP over 68.2 innings pitched across 10 starts. His strikeout rate stands at 5.77 K/9, paired with a disciplined 1.83 BB/9, indicating strong command despite a modest punchout capability. While his recent ERA trend is noted as "up," he has maintained a solid 66.7% quality start percentage throughout the season, suggesting a consistent ability to pitch deep into games effectively. Conversely, Mitch Keller, the Pittsburgh Pirates' right-hander, holds a season ERA of 4.81 and a 1.23 WHIP over 73 innings through 13 starts. Keller demonstrates a higher strikeout rate at 6.78 K/9 but also a higher walk rate of 2.84 BB/9. His recent ERA trend is reported as "down," signaling an improvement in his most recent outings, and he matches Wrobleski with an identical 66.7% quality start rate.

The Los Angeles Dodgers present a potent offensive threat, boasting a collective 0.789 OPS and having scored 365 runs this season, supported by a strong .264 batting average. Their pitching staff complements this offense with an impressive 3.24 team ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, alongside a high 9.12 K/9 rate, demonstrating overall dominance on both sides of the ball. The Pittsburgh Pirates, while less dominant, maintain a respectable offensive profile with a 0.737 OPS and 345 runs scored, hitting for a .253 average. Their pitching unit records a 4.16 team ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, also featuring a 9.12 K/9, indicating a capable but less stifling performance compared to their opponents.

Analysis of the 2025 head-to-head matchups between these two clubs reveals a balanced series, with each team securing three victories in six contests, including some higher-scoring affairs such as a 9-7 result and an 8-4 game. The total line for the upcoming game is set at 9.5 runs. This figure appears to reflect the Dodgers' consistently high-powered offense, which frequently contributes to elevated run totals, while also considering the potential for improved performance from Mitch Keller and the generally solid, though not elite, Pirates pitching staff against a strong lineup.

A significant portion of the away lineup has prior experience against Mitch Keller, with Freddie Freeman (9-for-18 in 20 PA, .500 AVG, 1.272 OPS), Shohei Ohtani (4-for-11 in 12 PA, .364 AVG, 1.599 OPS), and Kyle Tucker (2-for-2 in 3 PA, 1.000 AVG, 3.500 OPS) showing strong historical numbers. Andy Pages is 1-for-3 in 4 plate appearances with a .333 average and 1.167 OPS. Mookie Betts is 1-for-10 in 14 plate appearances with a .100 average and .757 OPS, while Max Muncy is 1-for-6 in 7 plate appearances with a .167 average and .953 OPS. Ryan Ward, Dalton Rushing, and Alex Freeland have no MLB history against Keller.

The home lineup has very limited prior experience against Justin Wrobleski. Nick Gonzales, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Jake Mangum, and Jared Triolo are all hitless in their single at-bat against Wrobleski, each with a .000 average and .000 OPS. Spencer Horwitz has one plate appearance with zero at-bats against Wrobleski. Marcell Ozuna, Player 699013, and Rafael Flores Jr. have no MLB history against this pitcher.

The away lineup features significantly more batters with prior experience and notable success against the opposing starter compared to the home lineup, which has very little history against Justin Wrobleski.