Matchup at a glance
PitcherStat calculationCategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherGuardiansCleveland has the stronger starting-pitcher profile: Messick leads in P-Score, WHIP and K/9.
Offense vs handEvenThe handedness splits are nearly even, with less than a .004 difference in OPS.
Team strengthRaysTampa leads 68–55 in T-Score.
Starting pitchers
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
How the starters differ
·Messick owns the lower FIP, 3.07 to 5.16.
·Messick strikes out 2.5 more batters per nine innings.
·Messick allows the lower home-run rate: 0.82 vs 1.68 per nine.
·Messick allows fewer baserunners, with a 1.06 WHIP compared with 1.23.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
| Metric | Matz | Messick | Note |
|---|
| ERA− | 137 | 62 | Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average. |
| FIP | 5.16 | 3.07 | |
| WAR | -0.1 | 4.8 | Season value. |
How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix
Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.
Matz arsenal
| Pitch | Usage | Velo |
|---|
| Sinker | 50% | 93.5 |
| Changeup | 29% | 83.0 |
| Curveball | 12% | 78.8 |
| Slider | 8% | 82.4 |
| Cutter | 0% | 88.2 |
Messick arsenal
| Pitch | Usage | Velo |
|---|
| Four-seam | 42% | 94.4 |
| Changeup | 24% | 85.9 |
| Sinker | 15% | 92.8 |
| Curveball | 9% | 79.3 |
| Slider | 6% | 87.0 |
| Cutter | 5% | 90.6 |
Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand
0.679OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
0.675OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Lineups
Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page Lineups not announced
Neither club has posted a batting order. Handedness composition, H-Score leaders and batter-vs-pitcher samples appear here as soon as the first order is filed — typically two to three hours before first pitch.
Team comparison
Results
TB·
CLE+3276th
Run differential
+25017th
Frequently asked
Who is starting for the Rays?+
Steven Matz is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Guardians?+
Parker Messick is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
6:10 PM ET at Progressive Field.
Where is the game being played?+
Progressive Field, home of the Cleveland Guardians.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not yet. Orders appear here when they are posted.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Steven Matz is at 36; Parker Messick is at 76. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.