Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers (2026-06-13). Aaron Nola vs Shane Drohan at American Family Field.

Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philadelphia carrying a season ERA of 5.86 and a WHIP of 1.45 across 66 innings pitched in 13 starts. His strikeout rate stands at 9.27 K/9, paired with a 3.0 BB/9. Nola's recent performance shows a flat trend in his ERA, but he has registered a 16.7% blow-up rate and a quality start percentage of just 33.3%. His last five outings indicate fluctuating effectiveness, with his ERA rising to 5.06 in his most recent start, where he allowed five earned runs over 4.1 innings. Opposing him is Shane Drohan, who has a more favorable season ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.12 over a significantly smaller sample size of 37.2 innings and only 3 starts. Drohan's K/9 is 8.84 and his BB/9 is 2.63, but his trend ERA is currently marked as "up," and he has a 0% quality start percentage. His last five appearances have been notably short, averaging just over 2.5 innings, suggesting he may not be fully stretched out as a traditional starter, which could lead to early bullpen involvement.

The Milwaukee Brewers present a robust offensive unit, evidenced by their 0.730 team OPS and 358 runs scored this season, significantly outperforming the Phillies' 0.681 OPS and 276 runs. Milwaukee's pitching staff also holds an advantage, boasting a collective 3.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, compared to Philadelphia's 4.04 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Furthermore, the Brewers arrive in strong form, having secured eight wins in their last ten games, while the Phillies have posted a 6-4 record over the same span, indicating a clear momentum disparity favoring the home side.

Recent head-to-head matchups from the 2025 season saw the Brewers take four of six games against the Phillies. These contests featured a mix of scoring environments, from a 2-0 shutout to a 17-7 slugfest, indicating variability in outcomes. The current total line is set at 8.0 runs. Given Aaron Nola's elevated season ERA and recent struggles, combined with the Brewers' potent offense and strong team form, there is potential for Milwaukee to contribute significantly to the total. Shane Drohan's limited workload in recent starts suggests the Brewers' bullpen will likely be utilized early, adding another variable to the run-scoring potential against a Phillies offense that has been less productive overall.