New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays

New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays (2026-06-30). Nolan McLean vs Kevin Gausman at Rogers Centre.

Nolan McLean enters this contest with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 89.1 innings pitched this season, featuring a strong 10.68 K/9 and a manageable 3.43 BB/9. His recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, though his quality start percentage stands at 50 percent. Kevin Gausman, for the Blue Jays, has posted a 4.36 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP across 95 innings, with an 8.81 K/9 and an impressive 2.08 BB/9, indicating better control. Gausman's ERA trend is currently moving downwards, and he boasts a higher quality start percentage at 66.7 percent.

The New York Mets offense has recorded a .673 OPS and 340 runs this season, with a team batting average of .230. Their pitching staff holds a 4.10 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, alongside a 9.22 K/9. The Toronto Blue Jays offense exhibits a slightly better .699 OPS and 345 runs, with a .247 team batting average. On the mound, the Blue Jays' pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, with an 8.90 K/9.

The Mets have historically performed well against the Blue Jays, winning all three of their recent head-to-head matchups in April 2025, with scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 5-0. The total line for this game is set at 8.0 runs. Given the relatively similar season ERAs of both starting pitchers, McLean at 4.03 and Gausman at 4.36, and the competitive offensive output from both teams, the 8.0 total line appears to align with expectations for a game that could see moderate scoring.