New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays (2026-06-30). Nolan McLean vs Kevin Gausman at Rogers Centre.

Nolan McLean enters this contest with a 4.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 89.1 innings pitched this season, demonstrating a solid strikeout rate of 10.68 K/9 and a controlled walk rate of 3.43 BB/9. His recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, though his quality start percentage stands at 50%. Kevin Gausman, on the other hand, has posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 95 innings, with an 8.81 K/9 and an excellent 2.08 BB/9, indicating strong command. Gausman's ERA trend is currently downward, and he boasts a higher quality start percentage at 66.7%.

The Mets' offense has generated 340 runs this season with a .673 OPS, hitting 94 home runs and maintaining a .230 batting average. Their pitching staff holds a 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with a 9.22 K/9. The Blue Jays' offense has slightly outperformed the Mets in runs, scoring 345 with a .699 OPS, 86 home runs, and a .247 batting average. Toronto's pitching staff has a comparable 4.12 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, with an 8.90 K/9.

The recent head-to-head history between these two clubs shows the New York Mets having won all three previous matchups against the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025, with scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 5-0. These low-scoring affairs suggest a tendency for tighter games when these teams meet. The total line for this game is set at 8.0, which aligns with the historical trend of lower-scoring contests between these two teams, especially considering the relatively similar pitching metrics of both starters and their ability to limit walks.