The postseason begins Tuesday with four games and no obvious common script.
Philadelphia and Atlanta open the day with two left-handers capable of taking over a game. The White Sox head to Houston with one of the league's better offenses and a young starter facing a lineup built around power. Boston and New York renew their rivalry with two pitching staffs that could make every run feel expensive. The night ends in San Diego, where the hottest team in the field meets the most productive offense in baseball.
There is plenty of star power on the schedule. More interestingly, each game asks a different question.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — 2:00 PM ET
The first game may come down to how long Philadelphia can keep Chris Sale from controlling it.
Sale finished the regular season with a 2.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings across 162⅔ innings. Jesús Luzardo gives the Phillies a legitimate answer. He posted a 2.86 ERA over 179⅔ innings and matched Sale's 11.1 K/9.
On paper, Atlanta has the cleaner path once the starters leave.
The Braves' bullpen ranked fourth in MLB with a 3.44 ERA and second with a 1.19 WHIP. Philadelphia's relief group finished with a 4.43 ERA, so the Phillies would rather not turn this into a long bullpen game.
Atlanta also won nine of 13 meetings during the regular season and went 52-29 at Truist Park.
Still, Philadelphia was 45-36 on the road, and Luzardo has the swing-and-miss stuff to keep Atlanta from building innings. If he gets through the top of the Braves' order cleanly the first time around, the pressure shifts back toward Sale and an Atlanta offense that averaged 4.58 runs per game.
This looks less like a matchup Philadelphia has to dominate and more like one it has to keep close.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros — 5:00 PM ET
Houston's record is ordinary. Its power is not.
The Astros finished the season with an MLB-best 226 home runs and ranked fifth in slugging. Chicago brings plenty of offense of its own: 4.79 runs per game, fifth in baseball, plus 211 home runs.
That makes the pitching uncertainty more important than usual.
Hagen Smith has only 28 major-league innings on his line, but they have been loud ones: a 1.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 13.2 K/9. The problem is the 5.1 walks per nine. Against Houston, free baserunners are the fastest way to turn a good start into a short one.
AJ Blubaugh presents a different profile for the Astros. He worked 96 innings with a 3.66 ERA, but his 4.31 FIP suggests Chicago may have chances if it forces him into the middle of the plate.
The White Sox also arrive in better recent form, having won seven of their last 10. Houston closed with two straight wins but went only 5-5 over its final 10.
This game has the widest range of possible outcomes on the slate. Smith could miss enough bats to quiet Houston. Or the Astros could make his command the entire story before the middle innings.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees — 8:00 PM ET
There is usually no shortage of noise when Boston and New York meet. Tuesday's matchup could be decided by something much quieter: one mistake on the mound.
Cam Schlittler enters October after a huge regular season, finishing with a 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 over 193⅔ innings.
Boston counters with Payton Tolle, who was not as dominant but still gave the Red Sox 148⅔ innings with a 3.03 ERA and 3.04 FIP.
The late innings may be even harder.
Boston's bullpen finished first in MLB in both ERA and WHIP. New York ranked second in relief ERA and fourth in WHIP. If this is close after six, neither offense is guaranteed many easy looks.
The Yankees do have the larger power threat. Their 223 home runs ranked second in baseball, while Boston finished 26th with 163.
New York also won seven of 12 head-to-head games during the regular season.
But Boston's 46-35 road record matters here. The Red Sox have already shown they can travel, and their pitching gives them a way to stay in a game even if the offense does not create much early.
In a matchup this pitching-heavy, two or three at-bats with runners on base may end up carrying most of the night.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres — 10:00 PM ET
The Cubs spent the regular season hitting better than anyone.
Chicago finished first in MLB in runs per game, slugging and OPS, second in on-base percentage and third with 220 home runs.
San Diego enters with a very different argument.
The Padres closed 8-2 over their final 10 games and 17-3 over their last 20. They also went 51-30 at Petco Park.
That recent form makes Matthew Boyd's assignment uncomfortable. The Cubs left-hander finished with a 3.91 ERA and 4.21 FIP, while Michael King gives San Diego a 3.21 ERA across 185 innings.
The gap between the starters is not enormous, especially with King's 4.13 FIP sitting close to Boyd's. The larger difference may come later. San Diego's bullpen finished fifth in MLB with a 3.53 ERA, while Chicago's ranked 13th at 3.90.
Chicago does have one useful piece of history on its side: the Cubs won five of six meetings with San Diego during the regular season.
How much that matters now is another question.
The Padres arrive playing their best baseball of the year. The Cubs arrive with the lineup most capable of making a hot streak irrelevant.
That makes the final game less about who owns the cleaner statistical profile and more about whether San Diego can slow Chicago before the Cubs' lineup gets multiple looks at the pitching staff.
Tuesday's slate does not offer one clear postseason theme.
Atlanta has the deeper pitching setup. Houston has the home-run power. New York and Boston can both squeeze a game with their staffs. San Diego has momentum, while Chicago has the league's best offense.
By the end of the night, at least one of those strengths is going to look a lot less comfortable than it did in the morning.
