Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-09). Jesús Luzardo vs Brady Singer at Great American Ball Park.

Luzardo brings the stronger overall profile into this matchup, posting a 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 103.1 innings across 18 starts with an elite 10.89 K/9 against 2.87 BB/9. His recent form has been especially sharp, allowing one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts, and over his last four outings he has struck out 37 hitters in 24.2 innings while the trend on his ERA is moving down. Singer has a 5.03 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 82.1 innings over 17 starts, with a more modest 7.76 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9, and the long ball remains a major issue at 2.19 HR/9. His last seven starts show some stabilization with three outings of two earned runs or fewer in the last four, but he still has not consistently worked deep and his trend ERA is listed up.

Offensively, these lineups are fairly close by season OPS, with Philadelphia at .709 and Cincinnati at .702, but the Phillies have been the slightly more productive run-scoring club at 412 runs versus 384. Cincinnati does offset some batting average weakness with a better on-base rate, .310 to .305, though the Reds have also struck out 862 times compared with 816 for Philadelphia. On the mound as full staffs, the Phillies also hold the cleaner edge with a 4.29 team ERA and 1.33 WHIP, while the Reds sit at 4.57 and 1.46. Recent form is mixed for both clubs, but Philadelphia’s game log has been more volatile, alternating strong offensive nights with several lopsided losses.

The recent head-to-head sample is split 3-3 over the last six meetings, but the scoring pattern has leaned situational rather than consistently high, with three games finishing at seven total runs or fewer and two Cincinnati wins coming by 8-0 and 6-1 margins. That makes the 9.5 total line interesting in this park: Great American Ball Park can inflate scoring quickly, yet the matchup also includes the better swing-and-miss arm in Luzardo and a Phillies staff that has the stronger baseline run prevention. The over case rests heavily on Singer’s home run vulnerability and both bullpens allowing traffic, while the under case starts with Luzardo’s current run suppression.