Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles

Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles (2026-07-09). David Peterson vs Trevor Rogers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Peterson enters with a 6.75 ERA and 1.67 WHIP across 77.1 innings, with 7.91 K/9 and 3.84 BB/9, and the recent profile is volatile rather than stabilizing. He has not produced a quality start this season, carries a 40 percent blow-up rate, and over his last seven starts he has allowed 31 earned runs in 29.0 innings, including 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings against St. Louis last time out. Rogers has been much steadier, posting a 4.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 84.1 innings with 6.94 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9, and his trend line is moving the right way. Over his last seven starts he has worked 42.0 innings with only 11 earned runs allowed, and he has given up two runs or fewer in six of those seven outings.

Chicago brings the stronger offensive baseline into the matchup, with a .749 OPS, .338 OBP, 117 home runs and 469 runs scored, all better than Baltimore’s .716 OPS, .319 OBP, 108 homers and 425 runs. The Cubs have also been the hotter club recently, taking eight of their last ten, while the Orioles have dropped seven of ten. On the mound at the team level, these staffs are fairly close by ERA, with Chicago at 4.36 and Baltimore at 4.40, but the Cubs own the better WHIP at 1.27 versus 1.37, while the Orioles have done a better job limiting long balls overall with 105 homers allowed compared with Chicago’s 141.

Last season’s head-to-head meetings were tight and generally lower scoring, with Chicago taking two of three and the three games producing four, seven and eight total runs. That history leans under the current 10.0 total, but this specific pitching matchup pulls in both directions because Rogers’ recent form supports run suppression while Peterson’s current shape has been highly vulnerable to crooked innings. With one lineup edge favoring Chicago and one starter carrying major instability, the total is being set more on game-state volatility than on the recent series pattern.