Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-07-09). Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller at PNC Park.

Elder brings the steadier full-season line, working 98.2 innings with a 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.57 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9 across 17 starts. Keller has logged 100.1 innings in 18 starts, but his 5.02 ERA and 1.31 WHIP point to more traffic, even with a similar walk rate at 2.96 BB/9; his strikeout rate is lower at 6.64 K/9. Recent form is a concern on both sides: Elder has allowed 24 earned runs over his last five starts and has an upward ERA trend with a 40 percent blow-up rate, though he did hold Pittsburgh to two runs in six innings on June 7. Keller has also trended the wrong way, giving up 23 earned runs in his last seven starts and six or more hits in six of those outings, including six runs in 4.2 innings against Atlanta on June 5.

The team profile leans more offensive for Pittsburgh and more balanced for Atlanta. The Pirates own the better batting line with a .762 OPS, .262 average and 487 runs, compared with Atlanta’s .725 OPS, .248 average and 444 runs, while both clubs have hit 117 home runs. On the mound, Atlanta has the stronger staff numbers with a 3.61 team ERA and 1.23 WHIP versus Pittsburgh’s 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, which matters for bettors because the Braves can compensate more effectively if Elder only gets through five or six innings. Recent form has been mixed for both teams, with Atlanta 4-6 in its last 10 and Pittsburgh 6-4, but both offenses have shown volatility from game to game.

Recent head-to-head results from 2025 slightly favor Pittsburgh, which won four of the last six meetings, and several of those games stayed competitive rather than turning into extended slugfests. That said, the current 9.5 total reflects two starters carrying upward ERA trends and recent damage allowed, especially with Keller already having been hit hard by Atlanta and Elder showing a run of three rough starts in four outings before this matchup. The number is high enough to acknowledge the offensive upside on both rosters, but it also sits in range because Elder’s season baseline and Atlanta’s stronger overall pitching staff can still suppress a true shootout if contact quality is managed.