Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (2026-07-02). Chase Burns vs Jacob Misiorowski at American Family Field.
Chase Burns enters this matchup with a season ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 1.08 across 91.2 innings pitched, demonstrating solid control with an 11 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. His recent performance indicates a downward trend in ERA, and he has maintained a 50% quality start percentage without any blow-up starts. Jacob Misiorowski boasts an even more impressive 1.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over 99 innings, featuring a dominant 13.27 K/9 and a low 2.45 BB/9, also showing a downward trend in ERA. Misiorowski's quality start percentage is lower at 33.3%, but he has similarly avoided blow-up outings. Both right-handers have shown stability in their recent starts, with Burns having a recent outing of 0 earned runs over 5 innings and Misiorowski allowing 1 earned run over 5 innings in his last start.
The Brewers' offense presents a more formidable challenge with a .737 OPS and 434 runs scored, supported by a .255 batting average and .339 on-base percentage. Their pitching staff also holds a significant advantage, posting a 3.37 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP, alongside a strong 9.91 K/9. In contrast, the Reds' offense has a .698 OPS, 357 runs scored, and a .228 batting average, indicating less offensive firepower. The Reds' pitching staff has struggled more, with a 4.62 team ERA and 1.47 WHIP, and a lower 8.15 K/9. The Brewers have also demonstrated better recent form, winning 8 of their last 10 games, while the Reds have won 7 of their last 10.
Historically, the head-to-head matchups between these two teams have been relatively balanced, with the Brewers holding a slight edge over the past season. The total line for this game is set at 6.5 runs, which aligns with the strong pitching performances expected from both starters, particularly Misiorowski's low ERA and WHIP. Given the proficiency of both starting pitchers, especially Misiorowski, and the Brewers' superior team pitching metrics, a lower-scoring affair could be anticipated.
