Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (2026-06-29). Nick Lodolo vs Robert Gasser at American Family Field.

Nick Lodolo enters this contest with a season ERA of 5.59 and a WHIP of 1.52 across 46.2 innings pitched in 9 starts, demonstrating struggles with efficiency and run prevention. His strikeout rate stands at 7.33 K/9, while his walk rate is 3.47 BB/9, indicating a moderate ability to miss bats but also a tendency to issue free passes. Lodolo's recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, and he has achieved a quality start in only 33.3 percent of his outings, suggesting inconsistency. Robert Gasser, for the Brewers, has a more favorable season ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.27 over 30 innings in 6 starts. Gasser boasts a higher strikeout rate at 9.3 K/9, though his walk rate is similar to Lodolo's at 3.6 BB/9. His ERA trend is also upward, and his quality start percentage is lower at 16.7 percent, but he has shown flashes of dominance with a lower WHIP and higher strikeout potential.

The Brewers' offense has been more productive this season, scoring 418 runs with an OPS of 0.730, compared to the Reds' 350 runs and 0.699 OPS. Milwaukee also exhibits a better on-base percentage at 0.337 and a higher batting average of 0.253, indicating a more consistent ability to get runners on base. On the pitching side, the Brewers' staff collectively holds a significantly better ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 1.18, alongside a high K/9 rate of 9.91. The Reds' pitching staff has a higher team ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.46, suggesting more vulnerability on the mound.

Recent head-to-head matchups between these two teams have been competitive, with the Reds holding a slight edge in wins in the last 13 games. The total line for this game is set at 9.0, which aligns with the starting pitching matchup featuring two left-handers who have shown susceptibility to runs, particularly Lodolo with his elevated ERA and WHIP. Given the Brewers' stronger offensive and pitching metrics, and the Reds' struggles, the total line suggests expectations for a moderately high-scoring affair.