St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (2026-07-02). Dustin May vs Hurston Waldrep at Truist Park.

Dustin May enters this contest with a season ERA of 4.3 and a WHIP of 1.2 over 83.2 innings pitched across 15 starts. His strikeout rate stands at 8.28 K/9, while his walk rate is 2.37 BB/9, indicating a decent ability to limit free passes. May's recent form shows an upward trend in ERA, despite three consecutive quality starts in his last five outings, where he allowed only one earned run in each of those three starts after two initial blow-up starts. His quality start percentage is 50%, with a blow-up rate of 33.3%, suggesting inconsistency. Hurston Waldrep, on the other hand, has made only one appearance this season, pitching 2 innings with a 0 ERA, but a concerning 18 BB/9 and 3 WHIP in that limited sample. His K/9 is high at 13.5, but the walk rate is a significant red flag for a pitcher with minimal major league experience.

The Cardinals' offense has produced 368 runs this season with a .711 OPS, driven by 91 home runs and a .244 batting average. Their pitching staff holds a 4.24 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, allowing 90 home runs, with a K/9 of 7.56. The Braves' offense has been slightly more potent, scoring 398 runs with a .717 OPS, hitting 104 home runs and batting .246. Atlanta's pitching staff boasts a stronger 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, allowing 88 home runs, with a higher K/9 of 8.74. Both teams have shown mixed results in their recent form, with the Cardinals going 5-5 in their last ten games and the Braves also at 5-5.

In their head-to-head matchups from the previous season, the Braves hold a slight edge, winning four of the six contests against the Cardinals. The scores in these games suggest a mix of higher-scoring and lower-scoring affairs, with the Braves winning games like 7-6 and 6-5, but also a 4-1 victory. Given the lack of a total line for this specific game, it is difficult to assess how the market perceives the potential scoring environment, but the historical data indicates these teams can engage in competitive, varied scoring outcomes.