Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles
Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles (2026-07-07). Matthew Boyd vs Shane Baz at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Boyd enters with a 5.08 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 33.2 innings, 9.89 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9 across seven starts. The strikeout rate is still useful, and his trend ERA is listed down, but the workload has been light and the quality-start rate sits at only 20 percent. In his last four starts he has allowed 10 earned runs in 19.2 innings, with the most recent outing a five-inning, three-earned-run line against San Diego that included two homers. Baz has the stronger full-season base with a 4.19 ERA over 101 innings, a 1.37 WHIP, 7.75 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9 in 17 starts. His recent form has been steadier than dominant, with six starts of at least five innings in his last seven and 15 earned runs allowed over his last 43.2 innings, though his trend ERA is marked up despite a solid seven-inning, two-earned-run outing last time.
Chicago brings the better offensive profile into the matchup, posting a .747 OPS and 455 runs compared with Baltimore’s .714 OPS and 416 runs. The Cubs also have the edge in on-base skill at .338 OBP versus .319, while the Orioles have struck out more often, 832 times to 762. On the pitching side, the team numbers are close: Chicago owns a 4.36 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, while Baltimore sits at 4.34 and 1.37. Recent form is also fairly balanced, with the Cubs winning seven of their last 10 and the Orioles splitting momentum after a four-game skid with three wins in their last four before Sunday’s loss.
The most recent head-to-head set in 2025 produced two low-scoring games and one moderate-scoring result, with totals of one, seven and eight runs. That history leans tighter than the current 9.5 total, but this number reflects two starters carrying WHIPs around 1.40 and team ERAs in the mid-4.00s rather than ace-level run prevention. Boyd’s home-run vulnerability and Chicago’s stronger OPS push toward offense, while Baz’s ability to work deeper into games offers some counterweight to an inflated total.
