Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-07-07). Hurston Waldrep vs Paul Skenes at PNC Park.
Waldrep enters with only 7.1 major league innings this season, posting a 3.68 ERA and 1.64 WHIP with an 8.59 K/9 but a high 6.14 BB/9, so the profile is still volatile. His two most recent outings show that split clearly: 5.1 innings and three earned runs against St. Louis after a two-inning appearance versus San Francisco in which he allowed no runs but walked four. Skenes has the much larger sample, carrying a 3.62 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 11.04 K/9 across 97 innings, with elite strikeout ability and only 2.04 walks per nine. The recent trend is less dominant than his season line, though, as he has allowed 11 earned runs over his last three starts and his trend indicator points upward, even with a 60 percent quality start rate overall.
Atlanta’s offense has been solid rather than overwhelming, with a .727 OPS and 437 runs, and the recent form has been mixed with six losses in the last ten despite scoring nine and six runs in the last two defeats. Pittsburgh has been the more productive lineup on the season, posting a .762 OPS and 475 runs with a stronger .340 OBP, and it has also shown more recent punch with 24 runs across its last four wins. On the mound, the Braves own the better overall staff numbers with a 3.55 team ERA and 1.23 WHIP, compared with Pittsburgh’s 4.27 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. That gap matters for full-game bettors because Atlanta’s bullpen and staff depth have been more reliable even if the starting matchup leans heavily toward the home side in experience.
The 2025 head-to-head sample slightly favors Pittsburgh, which won four of the six meetings, and those games were generally competitive aside from a 9-3 Pirates win. Five of the six meetings finished at seven total runs or fewer, but the current 8.0 total sits in a more balanced range because Skenes can suppress scoring while Waldrep’s limited track record and control issues introduce some over risk. PNC Park can support lower-scoring games, yet both offenses bring enough on-base and home run production to keep that number live if either starter loses command early.
