New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (2026-07-07). Will Warren vs Ian Seymour at Tropicana Field.

Warren brings the larger workload and the slightly better run prevention profile, posting a 3.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 89.1 innings with 9.17 K/9 and 2.92 BB/9 in 17 starts. Seymour has worked 56 innings with a 4.02 ERA, but his 1.09 WHIP is cleaner than Warren’s, and his strikeout rate is a bit higher at 9.64 K/9 with 3.38 BB/9. Recent form separates them: Warren has allowed 16 earned runs over his last seven starts and has mostly stayed in the four-to-six inning range, while Seymour’s ERA trend is down after allowing just 1 earned run across his last 12 innings with 15 strikeouts and 2 walks. Warren’s recent line still shows some volatility from start to start, whereas Seymour has stabilized after a shakier early June stretch.

Offensively, the Yankees hold a narrow OPS edge at .735 versus Tampa Bay’s .729 and have much more home run output, 131 to 84, but the Rays have been the more efficient contact lineup with a .258 average, .335 OBP, and only 631 strikeouts compared with New York’s 807. New York has scored more runs overall, 432 to 397, yet recent form is cooler, with the Yankees dropping seven of their last ten while the Rays had won seven of ten before back-to-back losses. On the pitching side, the Yankees own the stronger team ERA at 3.37 and a solid 1.19 WHIP, while Tampa Bay’s staff has a slightly better WHIP at 1.17 but a higher 3.76 ERA and more home runs allowed, 111 versus 87. The Rays do bring a bullpen edge in saves, 35 to 21, which matters if Seymour can hand over a lead after six innings.

The recent head-to-head sample leans toward New York, which won 8 of the last 13 meetings and took the final five matchups of the 2025 season. Those games were not uniformly high scoring, but there were enough crooked-number results, including 13-3, 10-8, and multiple seven-run Yankee outputs, to keep an 8.0 total relevant despite two starters who miss bats. With Warren generally competent but not dominant deep into games and Seymour carrying both swing-and-miss upside and some home run risk against a power-heavy lineup, the total sits in a reasonable middle range rather than a clear pitcher’s-duel number.