New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (2026-06-16). Kodai Senga vs Brady Singer at Great American Ball Park.

Kodai Senga takes the mound for the Mets with a challenging season ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.95 across 20 innings pitched over five starts. While his strikeout rate is high at 10.35 K/9, his control issues are evident with a 5.85 BB/9, contributing to a 40% blow-up rate and only a 20% quality start percentage. His recent outings reflect this volatility, with three of his last five starts seeing him surrender 6 or more earned runs in less than 3.1 innings, despite a reported downward trend in ERA. For the Reds, Brady Singer enters with a season ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.64 over a more substantial 61 innings across 13 starts. Singer exhibits better control with a 2.95 BB/9, though his K/9 of 6.93 is lower than Senga's, and his HR/9 sits at a concerning 2.51. He boasts a 0% blow-up rate and a 33.3% quality start percentage, indicating more consistent, albeit not always dominant, performances, with his ERA also trending downward.

Offensively, the Cincinnati Reds present a more potent lineup, evidenced by their 0.709 OPS and 305 runs scored, surpassing the New York Mets' 0.664 OPS and 288 runs. The Reds also show a higher home run total with 92 compared to the Mets' 76. Conversely, the Mets hold an advantage in overall team pitching, posting a 3.96 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, which are notably better than the Reds' team ERA of 4.61 and WHIP of 1.46. This suggests the Mets' bullpen and other starters have been more effective in limiting opposition scoring, creating a contrast between the teams' primary strengths.

Recent head-to-head matchups from 2025 show an even split, with both teams winning three games against each other. The scores in these contests have varied, with some lower-scoring affairs like 2-3 and 3-6, alongside higher-scoring games such as 5-4 and 8-4. The total line for this game is set at 9.5, which aligns with the profiles of both starting pitchers, who have demonstrated susceptibility to runs, particularly Senga's high ERA and Singer's high HR/9, in addition to Great American Ball Park's reputation as a hitter-friendly venue.