Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-06-27). Chase Burns vs Jared Jones at PNC Park.

Chase Burns enters this contest with a strong season ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 1.05 across 85.2 innings pitched, demonstrating high efficiency. His strikeout rate is impressive at 10.72 K/9, balanced by a controlled walk rate of 3.05 BB/9. Burns' recent starts show a positive trend, with his ERA trending down and a stable alternating pattern, including a quality start percentage of 50 percent. He has also recorded a zero percent blow-up rate, indicating consistent performance without major meltdowns. Jared Jones, in contrast, has a season ERA of 5.75 and a WHIP of 1.52 over 20.1 innings, suggesting struggles with run prevention and baserunners. His K/9 stands at 9.30, but his BB/9 is higher at 3.54, contributing to his elevated WHIP. Jones' recent form is concerning, with his ERA trending up and an alternating pattern in his starts, failing to record a single quality start this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates offense holds an advantage with a .748 OPS and 413 runs scored, surpassing the Cincinnati Reds' .697 OPS and 337 runs. The Pirates also boast a higher batting average of .257 compared to the Reds' .226, indicating more consistent hitting. On the pitching side, the Pirates' team ERA of 4.10 and WHIP of 1.29 are superior to the Reds' 4.48 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, suggesting a more effective pitching staff overall. Both teams have similar home run totals, with the Pirates hitting 99 and the Reds 98.

Recent head-to-head matchups between these two teams in 2025 have been somewhat mixed, with the Reds winning 7 of 13 games. The total line for this game is set at 8.0, which appears to be a reasonable figure given the contrasting pitching matchups. Burns' strong season metrics suggest he could limit the Pirates' scoring, while Jones' struggles and the Pirates' potent offense could push runs across. However, the Pirates' overall pitching advantage might help keep the Reds' offense in check.