Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

Boston Red Sox at New York Mets (2026-07-12). Payton Tolle vs Zach Thornton at Citi Field.

Starters — Payton Tolle has been the steadier profile, carrying a 3.14 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 80.1 innings with 8.96 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, and 0.90 HR/9. His last three starts have been volatile but strong overall: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB; 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K, 3 BB; and 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB. The trend is up, with two scoreless outings in his last three. Zach Thornton has a 4.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 10.1 innings, with 8.71 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, and 0.87 HR/9. His recent sample is limited, but he allowed 1 earned run over 6.0 innings with 7 strikeouts and 1 walk in his last outing after giving up 4 earned runs in 4.1 innings in the prior appearance. There is not enough workload yet to establish a firm trend, though the most recent start was clearly better.

Teams — Boston enters with a .704 OPS, 382 runs scored, a .244 team average, and a pitching staff at 3.61 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP. The Red Sox are also 8-2 over their last 10, which supports the idea of a club in good current form on both sides of the ball. New York has a .685 OPS, 396 runs scored, and a .234 team average, while its staff has posted a 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The Mets have scored more total runs than Boston despite the lower OPS, but their recent 4-6 stretch and weaker run-prevention numbers point to a less stable overall profile coming into this matchup.