Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres

Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres (2026-07-12). Kevin Gausman vs Germán Márquez at Petco Park.

Starters — Gausman enters with a 4.32 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 106.1 innings, supported by a strong 9.14 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, and 1.27 HR/9. His last three starts were uneven: 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, 5 BB; 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 2 BB; and 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K, 2 BB. The strikeout rate remains a clear asset, but the recent form points down. Márquez has a 5.02 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 37.2 innings with a 5.73 K/9, 4.30 BB/9, and 1.91 HR/9. His last three starts were 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K, 3 BB; 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 3 BB; and 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K, 5 BB. The most recent outing was sharp, but the broader profile still trends down because of low swing-and-miss, elevated walks, and home run damage.

Teams — Toronto owns a .690 OPS, 388 runs, a .244 team average, and a pitching staff with a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The Blue Jays are 5-5 over their last 10 games, and their offensive edge here is modest but real based on both OPS and batting average. San Diego carries a .675 OPS, 374 runs, and a .226 team average, while the staff has a 4.23 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The Padres are 4-6 in their last 10, and their lineup has been less productive overall, which puts more pressure on run prevention. From a betting perspective, Toronto looks cleaner in the underlying team numbers, while San Diego may need Márquez to repeat his last outing rather than his larger sample.