Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-07-12). Robert Gasser vs Paul Skenes at PNC Park.

Starters — Gasser has a 4.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 43.1 innings, with 8.31 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, and 1.66 HR/9. His last three starts were solid: 7.2 innings and 2 earned runs with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk on July 7, 5.2 innings and 3 earned runs with 5 strikeouts and 1 walk on June 29, and 6 innings and 2 earned runs with 7 strikeouts and 1 walk on June 21. The recent trend is down, which aligns with improved run prevention over that stretch. Skenes enters with a 3.58 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 103 innings, plus 10.75 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, and 0.96 HR/9. His last three starts were 6 innings and 2 earned runs with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk on July 7, 4 innings and 7 earned runs with 5 strikeouts and 2 walks on July 1, and 5 innings and 4 earned runs with 7 strikeouts and 2 walks on June 26. The trend is up, and his season-long strikeout, walk, and home run rates remain the stronger profile.

Teams — Milwaukee has a .735 OPS, 484 runs scored, a .255 team average, and a 3.36 team ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. The Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10, and the key betting angle is the balance between a mid-tier offense and one of the better run-prevention groups in this matchup. Pittsburgh has a .763 OPS, 502 runs scored, a .261 team average, and a 4.31 team ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. The Pirates are also 6-4 in their last 10, with the better offensive production by both OPS and runs, but the weaker overall pitching indicators behind Skenes.