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5in the bubble

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Sunday, Jul 12, 2026Nationals ParkFinal
NYY · Away · 74-57

New York Yankees

AL East · 4th · 3.5 GB
5:3
Final
H2H 30
WSH · Home · 62-72

Washington Nationals

NL East · 3rd · 16.0 GB
Starting pitcher matchup
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.15
125th
WHIP
1.37
154th
K/9
9.06
65th
BB/9
2.99
113th
FIP
4.27
HR/9
1.25
145th
OPS/R
0.770
IP
93.1
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA4.33
Road ERA4.45
Last 5 starts
ERA
6.20
QUALITY
START %
0%
(0 of 5)
DAYS
REST
5
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
3.88
41st
WHIP
1.38
67th
K/9
10.20
27th
BB/9
3.01
58th
FIP
3.41
HR/9
0.78
78th
OPS/R
0.625
IP
92.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA3.43
Road ERA2.94
Last 5 starts
ERA
3.91
QUALITY
START %
40%
(2 of 5)
DAYS
REST
7
Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand (2026)
20th
in MLB
0.716OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
7th
in MLB
0.744OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
2026 season team comparison
Stat
0.237 (29th)
Batting Average
0.237 (9th)
0.742 (16th)
OPS
0.742 (3rd)
142 (2nd)
Home Runs
142 (1st)
457 (18th)
Runs Scored
457 (1st)
3.39 (1st)
Team ERA
3.39 (26th)
1.19 (4th)
Team WHIP
1.19 (25th)
8.82 (8th)
K/9 (Starters)
8.82 (24th)
Runs scored & allowed per inning (2026)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Runs Scored
0.49
0.44
0.67
0.34
0.42
0.50
0.57
0.60
0.47
Runs Allowed
0.46
0.29
0.48
0.43
0.38
0.41
0.33
0.56
0.27
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Runs Scored
0.66
0.42
0.57
0.60
0.69
0.49
0.75
0.53
0.40
Runs Allowed
0.46
0.56
0.51
0.57
0.56
0.51
0.51
0.69
0.68
Starting lineups vs opposing starter (2026)
#
Player
Bats
AVG
OPS
HR
PA
1
L
0.220
0.737
18
2
2
L
0.249
0.868
34
2
3
S
0.230
0.650
6
2
4
L
0.258
0.771
12
2
5
L
0.221
0.696
18
1
6
R
0.233
0.663
12
0
7
L
0.216
0.649
10
2
8
L
0.177
0.567
8
1
9
R
0.194
0.694
2
1
2026 season: AVG · OPS · HR · PA
#
Player
Bats
AVG
OPS
HR
PA
1
L
0.265
0.928
30
0
2
L
0.283
0.871
27
0
3
L
0.221
0.735
5
0
4
L
0.276
0.877
29
0
5
R
0.213
0.644
10
0
6
L
0.249
0.715
17
0
7
L
0.233
0.701
7
0
8
L
0.237
0.643
3
0
9
S
0.279
0.758
8
0
2026 season: AVG · OPS · HR · PA
Matchup Preview

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals (2026-07-12). Will Warren vs Cade Cavalli at Nationals Park.

Starters — Will Warren: 4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 93.1 IP, 9.06 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9. His last three starts were uneven: 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K, 2 BB on July 7; 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 0 BB on July 1; and 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 K, 3 BB on June 26. The strikeout rate is solid, but the recent game log points to volatility and an upward trend in risk. Cade Cavalli: 3.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 92.2 IP, 10.2 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 0.78 HR/9. His last three starts were 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K, 2 BB on July 5; 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 13 K, 0 BB on June 30; and 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB on June 25. Cavalli brings the better swing-and-miss profile and stronger home run suppression, though his most recent outing was shortened. His trend is also up.

Teams — New York enters with a .742 OPS, 457 runs scored, a 3.39 team ERA, and a 1.19 team WHIP. The Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Their offensive line is decent but not overwhelming, while the pitching staff has been the stronger foundation. Washington carries a .759 OPS, 513 runs scored, a 4.75 team ERA, and a 1.40 team WHIP. The Nationals are also 5-5 over their last 10. Washington has been the more productive offense by OPS and total runs, but the staff-wide ERA and WHIP show more traffic allowed and less overall stability than New York’s pitching group.

KEY FACTS
Cavalli has the edge in
ERA (3.88) and K/9 (10.2)
Warren has allowed more home runs
per nine (1.25) than Cavalli (0.78)
Yankees team pitching is stronger (3.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) while
Nationals offense has been more productive (.759 OPS, 513 runs)
Last 10 games
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
30
3 Games Played