INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
ETLATYOBERLON
FinalFinal lineupsNL Central / NL East

Pittsburgh Pirates 11, Philadelphia Phillies 7

Final Score and Game Recap

Final score, pitching lines and standings context.

6:40 PM ET · Citizens Bank ParkStats updated Jun 29, 6:15 PM ETFinal lineups locked
T-Score53
Pittsburgh Pirates
81–80 · 3rd NL Central · T-Score 53
11
11–7
FINAL
Philadelphia Phillies
87–74 · 2nd NL East · T-Score 49
7
T-Score49
FINAL

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherPiratesAshcraft owns the stronger overall starter profile, with the higher P-Score and better strikeout and baserunner rates.
Offense vs handPiratesPittsburgh owns a .751 OPS vs RHP, 5th in MLB; Philadelphia ranks 25th vs RHP.
Recent formPiratesPittsburgh has been the better recent team, at 6–4 over the last 10.
Plate disciplinePiratesPittsburgh has drawn 313 walks this season, 70 more than Philadelphia.
WeatherModerate impactA 2 mph wind could modestly increase carry on fly balls.

Starting pitchers

PIT
Braxton Ashcraft RHP
Braxton Ashcraft
Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
3.65
65th
WHIP
1.09
25th
K/9
9.42
47th
BB/9
1.91
11th
P-Score68i
FIP
3.50
HR/9
1.20
112th
OPS/R
0.580
IP
165.1
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA3.71
Road ERA3.59
Last 5 starts
ERA
2.43
QUALITY
START %
60%
(3 of 5)
DAYS
REST
91
PHI
Aaron Nola RHP
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.67
146th
WHIP
1.35
132nd
K/9
9.09
65th
BB/9
3.03
104th
P-Score55i
FIP
4.80
HR/9
1.90
210th
OPS/R
0.792
IP
175.1
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA5.36
Road ERA3.84
Last 5 starts
ERA
5.06
QUALITY
START %
40%
(2 of 5)
DAYS
REST
93
How the starters differ
·Ashcraft allows fewer baserunners, with a 1.09 WHIP compared with 1.35.
·Ashcraft owns the lower FIP, 3.50 to 4.80.
·Ashcraft allows the lower home-run rate: 1.20 vs 1.90 per nine.
·Ashcraft owns a 2.43 ERA over his last five starts, compared with 5.06 for Nola.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
MetricAshcraftNolaNote
ERA−84105Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average.
FIP3.504.80
WAR3.61.4Season value.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Ashcraft arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam31%97.3
Curveball26%85.0
Slider22%91.8
Sinker17%97.1
Splitter4%91.8
Nola arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Knuckle Curve33%78.4
Four-seam24%92.3
Sinker18%91.6
Changeup16%85.6
Cutter8%86.2
Slider1%83.2

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Pirates vs RHP (Aaron Nola)
5th
in MLB
0.751OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Phillies vs RHP (Braxton Ashcraft)
25th
in MLB
0.703OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page
Pittsburgh PiratesOfficial lineupvs RHP Aaron Nola
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Nola (BvP)
1Konnor Griffin—–––No MLB historyNo history
2Brandon Lowe—–––No MLB historyNo history
3Bryan Reynolds—–––No MLB historyNo history
4Ryan O'Hearn—–––No MLB historyNo history
5Esmerlyn Valdez—–––No MLB historyNo history
6Endy Rodríguez—–––No MLB historyNo history
7Tyler Callihan—–––No MLB historyNo history
8Jared Triolo—–––No MLB historyNo history
9Jake Mangum—–––No MLB historyNo history
1Konnor Griffin– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score2Brandon Lowe– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score3Bryan Reynolds– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score4Ryan O'Hearn– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score5Esmerlyn Valdez– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score6Endy Rodríguez– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score7Tyler Callihan– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score8Jared Triolo– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score9Jake Mangum– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Ashcraft (BvP)
1Trea Turner—–––No MLB historyNo history
2Kyle Schwarber—–––No MLB historyNo history
3Bryce Harper—–––No MLB historyNo history
4Brandon Marsh—–––No MLB historyNo history
5Alec Bohm—–––No MLB historyNo history
6Bryson Stott—–––No MLB historyNo history
7J.T. Realmuto—–––No MLB historyNo history
8Gabriel Rincones Jr.—–––No MLB historyNo history
9Justin Crawford—–––No MLB historyNo history
1Trea Turner– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score2Kyle Schwarber– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score3Bryce Harper– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score4Brandon Marsh– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score5Alec Bohm– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score6Bryson Stott– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score7J.T. Realmuto– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score8Gabriel Rincones Jr.– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score9Justin Crawford– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score

Team comparison

OffensePITPIT·PHIPHI
AVG.253 5th.239 24th
OPS.734 6th.704 24th
Home runs185 13th180 17th
Runs763 6th706 19th
OBP.330 4th.311 24th
SLG.404 9th.393 25th
PitchingPITPIT·PHIPHI
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.17vs4.05
PITPHI
WHIP1.30vs1.29
PITPHI
K/99.3vs9.9
PITPHI
HR Allowed153vs189
PITPHI
ResultsPITPIT·PHIPHI
+28411th
Run differential
+25517th
81–80 Record87–74
6–4 Last 106–4
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Pirates (6–4)
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
Philadelphia Phillies (6–4)
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
3—3
6 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Pirates?+
Braxton Ashcraft (3.07 ERA, 7–3) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Phillies?+
Aaron Nola (5.58 ERA, 3–4) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
6:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Citizens Bank Park, home of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
How have the Pirates and Phillies performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Phillies 3–3 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Braxton Ashcraft is at 68; Aaron Nola is at 55. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.