Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (2026-06-28). Jesús Luzardo vs Cionel Pérez at Citi Field.

Jesús Luzardo enters this contest with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 92.1 innings pitched this season, striking out 10.72 batters per nine innings while walking 2.92. His recent performance indicates an alternating pattern, with a 33.3% quality start percentage and a flat trend in his ERA, suggesting inconsistency in his outings. Cionel Pérez, in contrast, has accumulated only 30.2 innings this season, primarily in relief, posting a 4.99 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, with a lower K/9 of 6.75 and a slightly higher BB/9 of 3.52. Pérez's ERA trend is down, and he has a 0% quality start percentage, which is expected given his role, but he has not recorded a blow-up outing.

The Phillies' offense has been more potent this season, scoring 363 runs with a .700 OPS, driven by 108 home runs. Their pitching staff maintains a solid 4.08 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, with a strong 9.62 K/9. The Mets' offense trails slightly, with 335 runs and a .673 OPS, hitting 92 home runs. New York's pitching staff has a comparable 4.11 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with a 9.22 K/9, indicating a relatively even matchup in terms of overall team pitching effectiveness.

Looking at the head-to-head history, the Phillies have had recent success against the Mets, winning four of their last five meetings in September 2025. Given the absence of a total line, it is challenging to assess how the pitching matchup and historical scoring trends might align with a specific over/under, but the Phillies' offensive edge could be a factor.