New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays (2026-06-29). Sean Manaea vs Trey Yesavage at Rogers Centre.

Sean Manaea enters this contest with a season ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.41 over 57.1 innings, striking out 9.42 batters per nine innings while walking 3.14. His recent performance indicates a downward trend in ERA, and he has yet to record a quality start this season, with his last five starts showing fluctuating results, including a 4.5 ERA in his most recent outing. Trey Yesavage, conversely, boasts a more impressive season ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.17 across 60.2 innings, featuring an 8.6 K/9 and a 4.45 BB/9. Yesavage has demonstrated better consistency with a downward trend in his ERA and a 33.3% quality start percentage, highlighted by three scoreless outings in his last five starts, including a dominant 6-inning, 0-run performance against the Yankees.

The Mets' offense presents a collective OPS of 0.675, scoring 339 runs this season with a batting average of 0.231. Their pitching staff holds a team ERA of 4.12 and a WHIP of 1.28, allowing 85 home runs. The Blue Jays' hitting slightly edges out the Mets with an OPS of 0.701 and 343 runs scored, alongside a 0.248 batting average. Toronto's pitching staff has a slightly higher team ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.33, having surrendered 93 home runs, indicating a marginal difference in overall team pitching effectiveness between the two clubs.

Recent head-to-head matchups from 2025 show the Mets sweeping the Blue Jays in a three-game series, with scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 5-0, suggesting a historical advantage for New York in low-scoring affairs. The total line for this game is set at 8.0, which aligns with the historical trend of lower-scoring games between these two teams and the relatively solid recent form of Trey Yesavage, potentially indicating a tighter contest.