Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (2026-06-23). Brandon Sproat vs Nick Lodolo at Great American Ball Park.

Brandon Sproat, a right-hander for the Brewers, enters this contest with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP across 63.2 innings pitched in 12 starts this season. His strikeout rate stands at 8.91 K/9, but he has struggled with control, issuing 4.52 BB/9. Sproat's recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, and he has a low quality start percentage of 16.7, indicating a tendency for shorter outings and higher run totals. Nick Lodolo, the Reds' left-handed starter, carries a 6.12 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 42.2 innings in 8 starts. Lodolo's K/9 is lower at 6.75, but his walk rate of 3.59 BB/9 is slightly better than Sproat's. Lodolo's ERA also shows an upward trend, and while his quality start percentage is higher at 33.3, neither pitcher has consistently demonstrated strong command or run prevention this season.

The Brewers' offense has been productive, posting a .728 OPS and scoring 399 runs this season, supported by a .254 batting average and a .338 on-base percentage. Their pitching staff has been considerably stronger, boasting a 3.40 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, along with an impressive 9.92 K/9. In contrast, the Reds' offense has struggled with a .700 OPS and 326 runs, hitting for a .227 average and a .309 OBP, though they have hit more home runs with 96 compared to Milwaukee's 68. Cincinnati's pitching has a higher team ERA of 4.53 and a 1.45 WHIP, suggesting a more permeable defense.

Looking at recent head-to-head matchups, the Brewers hold a slight edge over the Reds, winning 8 of their last 13 meetings. The total line for this game is set at 9.5 runs, which aligns with the elevated ERAs and WHIPs of both starting pitchers, suggesting expectations for a higher-scoring affair. Given the offensive capabilities of the Brewers and the struggles of both pitching rotations, particularly the home team's pitching metrics, the total line appears to reflect the potential for runs at Great American Ball Park.