Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (2026-06-23). Edward Cabrera vs Kodai Senga at Citi Field.

Edward Cabrera enters this matchup with a season ERA of 5.21 and a WHIP of 1.4 over 67.1 innings pitched, demonstrating a moderate strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9 but also a concerning 3.34 BB/9. His recent trend shows a downward movement in ERA, and he maintains a 50% quality start percentage with a stable alternating pattern. Kodai Senga, in contrast, has struggled significantly this season, posting a 9.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP across only 24 innings pitched, though his K/9 rate is higher at 10.5. However, Senga's walk rate is exceptionally high at 6.38 BB/9, and his quality start percentage is a mere 16.7%, indicating a much higher risk of blow-up outings, with a 33.3% blow-up rate this season.

The Chicago Cubs offense has been more productive, evidenced by a .738 OPS and 366 runs scored, alongside a robust .337 OBP, suggesting their ability to get on base consistently. Their pitching staff holds a respectable 4.28 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, though they have allowed 113 home runs. The New York Mets offense has underperformed in comparison, with a .669 OPS and 311 runs scored, accompanied by a lower .297 OBP, indicating less success in reaching base. The Mets' pitching staff has a slightly better 4.08 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, and they have surrendered fewer home runs, at 78, which could be a factor in this contest.

In their recent head-to-head meetings from 2025, the Mets hold a slight edge over the Cubs, winning four out of six contests. The total line for this game is not available, which makes it challenging to gauge the expected run environment; however, given Senga's high ERA and blow-up potential, combined with Cabrera's recent downward ERA trend, the pitching matchup presents a contrast that could lead to varied scoring outcomes depending on which pitcher performs closer to their season averages versus their recent form.