Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds

Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds (2026-07-03). Trevor Rogers vs Brady Singer at Great American Ball Park.

Rogers enters with a 4.99 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 79.1 innings, pairing modest swing-and-miss numbers at 6.92 K/9 with solid control at 2.72 BB/9. His recent sample was better than the full-season line, as he opened with a 4.08 ERA through his first five starts, including three outings of six innings or more, and his trend indicator points downward with a 50 percent quality-start rate. Singer has a similar surface ERA at 5.12, but the underlying profile is shakier because of a 1.54 WHIP and a very high 2.21 HR/9 across 77.1 innings, even though his 7.56 K/9 is slightly stronger than Rogers’ mark. His last five starts produced a 5.32 ERA, with one clear blowup against Miami and only one quality start in that span, which fits his lower 33.3 percent quality-start rate.

Baltimore brings the slightly more reliable offense by most broad measures, carrying a .716 OPS and 403 runs compared with Cincinnati’s .700 OPS and 364 runs. The Orioles also own the better on-base profile at .319 versus .309, while both clubs have similar home-run volume, 102 for Baltimore and 106 for Cincinnati, suggesting power is available on both sides in a hitter-friendly park. On the mound, Baltimore again has the narrower edge with a 4.39 team ERA and 1.37 WHIP, while Cincinnati sits at 4.59 and 1.46 and has allowed 119 homers, a notable concern in this venue. Recent form is mixed for Baltimore, but Cincinnati’s recent run showed more wins despite still carrying the weaker season-long run production.

The most recent head-to-head set in 2025 was volatile, with scores of 8-3, 9-5, and an extreme 24-2 result, so these teams have already shown the capacity to create crooked numbers against each other. That history lines up with a total of 10.0, especially with Singer’s home-run issues and both lineups showing enough power to punish mistakes. Rogers’ steadier WHIP and control offer a slightly calmer input, but neither starter’s season ERA argues strongly for a low-total environment at Great American Ball Park.