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Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Friday, Jul 3, 2026Daikin ParkFinal
TB · Away · 74-49

Tampa Bay Rays

AL East · 1st · —
3:1
Final
H2H 43
HOU · Home · 63-62

Houston Astros

AL West · 1st · —
Starting pitchers

N. Martinez

RHP · Nick Martinez
Season (2026)
2.66
ERA
#20 MLB
1.15
WHIP
#31 MLB
5.5
K/9
#202 MLB
1.6
BB/9
#1 MLB
vs HOU · career
1.69
ERA
.158
OPP AVG
3
K
5.3 IP1 GS0.75 WHIP
16 GS94.2 IP1.6 BB/978 K (14.3%)

S. Arrighetti

RHP · Spencer Arrighetti
Season (2026)
4.00
ERA
#135 MLB
1.29
WHIP
#122 MLB
9.4
K/9
#70 MLB
4.6
BB/9
#194 MLB
vs TB · career
1.50
ERA
.111
OPP AVG
4
K
6.0 IP1 GS0.50 WHIP
13 GS72.0 IP4.6 BB/987 K (23.7%)
Starter form · last 5 starts
COLD
ERA worse in last 5 +2.48
SEASON ERA
2.66
LAST 5 ERA
5.14
7
DAYS REST
40%
QS (L5)
1/5
BLOW-UP (L5)
LAST 5 STARTS (EARNED RUNS)
06/03
6
06/09
3
06/15
3
06/21
3
06/26
1
↑ ERA trending up lately
COLD
ERA worse in last 5 +5.00
SEASON ERA
4.00
LAST 5 ERA
9.00
7
DAYS REST
20%
QS (L5)
2/5
BLOW-UP (L5)
LAST 5 STARTS (EARNED RUNS)
06/03
4
06/08
3
06/14
4
06/20
6
06/26
8
↑ ERA trending up lately
Matchup edge
PITCHING
Rays
HITTING
Even
BULLPEN
Rays
OVERALL EDGE
Rays 2 - 0
When they score · when they bleed
TBTampa Bay Rays
3.13R/G scored
3.91R/G allowed
3.86Bullpen ERA
Hot inn 8 (0.60)·Bleed inn 6 (0.57)
HOUHouston Astros
3.20R/G scored
4.70R/G allowed
4.18Bullpen ERA
Hot inn 1 (0.58)·Bleed inn 5 (0.74)
TB
ScoredAllowed
HOU
ScoredAllowed
◆ Matchup preview

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (2026-07-03). Nick Martinez vs Spencer Arrighetti at Daikin Park.

Martinez has been the steadier run suppressor this season, carrying a 2.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 94.2 innings in 16 starts, with elite control at 1.62 walks per nine but a modest 5.51 strikeouts per nine. His profile is built on limiting damage rather than missing bats, and the quality-start rate of 66.7 percent with no blowups supports that. Over his last five starts, he allowed seven earned runs in 30 innings, including an eight-inning, one-run outing against Cincinnati, although the trend indicator points slightly upward in ERA. Arrighetti brings more swing-and-miss with a 9.38 K/9 over 72 innings, but his 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP reflect shakier command, especially with 4.63 walks per nine. His recent form has been strong on the surface, with only six earned runs allowed over his last 28.2 innings and a flat trend marker, but the walk totals in that stretch still create traffic and count pressure.

Offensively, these clubs are fairly close in overall production, though they get there differently. Tampa Bay owns a .737 OPS with a .261 average and .339 OBP, while Houston sits at a .725 OPS with a lower .242 average and .316 OBP but more over-the-fence impact, 116 homers to 79, and a slight edge in runs scored, 400 to 385. The more meaningful split for bettors is on the run prevention side: the Rays have the better staff numbers with a 3.72 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP, compared with Houston’s 4.77 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Houston does generate more strikeouts on the mound at 8.77 per nine versus 7.98, but the Astros have also allowed more homers and more baserunners overall.

Recent head-to-head results show a volatile scoring pattern. Tampa Bay won four of the last seven meetings, and those games ranged from tight 2-1 and 1-0 finishes to lopsided 13-3 and 16-3 results, so the series history includes both low-scoring control games and sudden offensive spikes. With no listed total available, the matchup itself leans on whether Martinez can keep Houston’s power in check and whether Arrighetti’s strikeout edge outweighs his walk risk against a Rays lineup that gets on base at a better clip.

Key facts
Martinez 2.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIPArrighetti 9.38 K/9, 4.63 BB/9Rays .737 OPS, Astros .725 OPSTotal n/a
◆ Lineup notes

Tampa Bay has very limited history against Spencer Arrighetti. Yandy Díaz has the best prior line, going 1-for-2 in 3 PA with a .500 average and 1.167 OPS, while Cedric Mullins is hitless at 0-for-2 in 2 PA with a .000 OPS and Taylor Walls is 0-for-1 in 2 PA with a .500 OPS. Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Jonny DeLuca, Chandler Simpson, Ben Williamson, and Nick Fortes have no MLB history vs Arrighetti.

Houston brings much more familiarity against Nick Martinez. Jose Altuve is 9-for-33 in 34 PA with a .273 average and .779 OPS, and Christian Walker has done major damage at 6-for-12 in 13 PA with a .500 average and 1.371 OPS. Isaac Paredes is 1-for-9 in 10 PA with a .111 average and .422 OPS, while Yainer Diaz is 1-for-5 in 6 PA with a .200 average and .533 OPS. Yordan Alvarez is hitless at 0-for-3 in 3 PA with a .000 OPS, Jake Meyers is 0-for-2 in 3 PA with a .000 OPS, Nick Allen is 0-for-1 in 1 PA with a .000 OPS, and Cam Smith and Taylor Trammell have no MLB history vs Martinez.

The Astros clearly have the more experienced group against the opposing starter, with several hitters carrying double-digit plate appearances against Martinez. Tampa Bay’s side is mostly seeing Arrighetti for the first time.

Matchup snapshot
CURRENT FORM · LAST 10
Rays 5-5
LLWWLLLWWW
HEAD TO HEAD · 2025–2026 (7 GAMES)
Rays 4 - 3 Astros
Last meeting: JUN 1, 2025
Rays 0 - 1 Astros
CURRENT FORM · LAST 10
Astros 6-4
LLWWWWWLWL
Lineup threats vs starter
Rays vs Spencer Arrighetti
Avg OPS 0.8341 hot hitterTop: Díaz 1.167 · Walls 0.500
Astros vs Nick Martinez
Avg OPS 0.7761 hot hitterTop: Walker 1.371 · Altuve 0.779 · Diaz 0.533
Tampa Bay Rays batters vs Spencer Arrighetti
Batter
AVG
OPS
HR
0.500
1.167
17
0.000
0.000
13
0.000
0.500
2
Houston Astros batters vs Nick Martinez
Batter
AVG
OPS
HR
0.273
0.779
13
0.000
0.000
36
0.111
0.422
16
0.500
1.371
23
16
0.200
0.533
8
0.000
0.000
3
0.000
0.000
2
Season comparison
· 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros
0.261
Team AVG
0.242
0.737
Team OPS
0.725
79
Home runs
116
385
Runs scored
400
3.72
Team ERA
4.77
102
HR allowed
119