Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (2026-07-03). Mike Paredes vs Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium.

Paredes enters with a 4.26 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 25.1 innings, but the shape of his profile is contact-oriented rather than dominant, with just 4.62 K per nine against 3.20 BB per nine and 1.42 home runs allowed per nine. His recent run prevention has been steady to slightly improving, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five outings, though he has also failed to work deep, topping out at five innings and posting no quality starts in four season turns. Cole’s surface line is similar at a 4.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 37.2 innings, but the underlying gap is clear with 8.12 K per nine and 2.39 BB per nine. His trend is also down, and over his last five starts he has allowed eight earned runs in 28 innings, including back-to-back scoreless outings before settling into a more alternating pattern.

Offensively, these clubs are fairly close in overall production, with New York holding a slight OPS edge at .740 to Minnesota’s .733 and a sizable home run edge, 124 to 110, while Minnesota has scored more total runs, 429 to 417. The Yankees also bring more patience with 340 walks versus 290, which matters against a starter like Paredes whose strikeout rate is low and whose walk rate can create traffic. The larger separation is on the pitching side, where New York owns a 3.36 team ERA and 1.19 WHIP compared with Minnesota’s 4.82 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That contrast suggests the Yankees are better equipped to control innings once the starters exit, especially in a park that can punish mistakes in the air.

Recent head-to-head results support volatility more than a clean trend, with the teams splitting the last six meetings 3-3 and several games landing in high-scoring territory, including 10-5, 10-9, and 9-1 type scorelines. That history fits a total of 10.0 because Paredes has not shown swing-and-miss ability or length, while Cole has been sharper lately but still carries a 1.67 HR per nine mark on the season. The number is high, but both the ballpark and the bullpen gap keep the game in a range where late scoring remains relevant.