New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (2026-07-16). Christian Scott vs Aaron Nola at Citizens Bank Park.

Starters — Christian Scott has a 3.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 54 IP with 10.83 K/9, 4.33 BB/9, and 1.17 HR/9. His last three starts: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB; 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 4 BB; 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB. The strikeout rate is strong, but the walk rate remains a pressure point. Recent form points slightly down despite the scoreless outing last time. Aaron Nola has a 5.75 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 97 IP with 9.46 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, and 1.86 HR/9. His last three starts: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB; 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 0 BB; 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K, 2 BB. Nola is still missing bats and limiting walks, but the home run rate has been a major issue. His trend is also down, though the last two outings were steadier.

Teams — New York enters with a .684 OPS and 398 runs scored, backed by a 4.27 team ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The Mets are 4-6 in their last 10, and the offense has been modest overall with a .234 team average. Philadelphia carries a .701 OPS and 424 runs scored with a 4.23 team ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The Phillies are 5-5 over their last 10 and have been slightly better than New York in both run production and OPS, though the gap is not large. From a betting perspective, both clubs profile similarly on the run-prevention side, while Philadelphia holds a small edge in offensive baseline.