Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (2026-06-22). Shota Imanaga vs Kodai Senga at Citi Field.

Shota Imanaga enters this contest with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 86.2 innings pitched across 15 starts, demonstrating solid control with a 2.28 BB/9 and a respectable 8.72 K/9. His recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, though his quality start percentage is 50%, indicating inconsistency. Kodai Senga, in contrast, has struggled significantly this season, posting a 9.00 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in just 24 innings across 6 starts, marked by a high 6.38 BB/9 despite a strong 10.5 K/9. Senga's blow-up rate stands at 33.3%, and his quality start percentage is a low 16.7%, suggesting a high risk of short outings and significant run production against him.

The Cubs' offense has been more productive, with a team OPS of 0.738 and 366 runs scored, supported by a 0.337 OBP. Their pitching staff maintains a 4.28 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, allowing 113 home runs. The Mets' offense trails with a 0.669 OPS and 311 runs, alongside a lower 0.297 OBP, indicating less overall offensive firepower. The Mets' pitching staff has a slightly better 4.08 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, having allowed fewer home runs at 78, but their bullpen will likely be tested given Senga's recent performance.

Recent head-to-head matchups between these two clubs in 2025 were closely contested, with the Mets holding a slight edge at home. The total line of 8.5 for this game reflects an expectation of moderate scoring, which aligns with Imanaga's season ERA and the Mets' offensive struggles, but Senga's high ERA and recent performance could push scoring beyond this total if he fails to limit damage early. The Cubs' more consistent offense and Imanaga's generally more stable pitching profile suggest a potential for them to capitalize on Senga's current form, while the Mets will need their offense to overcome their starter's recent struggles to reach the implied total.