New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (2026-07-06). Freddy Peralta vs Reynaldo López at Truist Park.

Peralta enters with a 4.81 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 95.1 innings, with 8.69 K/9 and 3.59 BB/9 over 18 starts. The strikeout rate is still playable, but the profile has been volatile, reflected by a 40 percent blow-up rate and an alternating recent pattern. In his last four starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 17.1 innings, though that span also included a five-inning shutout against the Cubs and a one-run outing over five innings against Atlanta on June 14. López has been much steadier on the season, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 51.2 innings with 8.01 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9. His recent trend points the right way in run prevention despite the metric showing ERA trending up overall, as he has given up just 2 earned runs across his last 13 innings and has not had a true blow-up start this year.

Atlanta brings the stronger overall offensive baseline with a .725 OPS, 431 runs, and 114 home runs, compared with the Mets at a .677 OPS, 362 runs, and 103 homers. The Braves also own the better team pitching marks, carrying a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP versus New York’s 4.29 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, while their bullpen save total of 26 also tops the Mets’ 15. Recent form for both clubs has featured scoring swings, including Sunday’s 10-9 game, but Atlanta’s season-long edge is clearer on both sides of the ball. New York’s offense has been more contact-challenged as well, with 746 strikeouts against Atlanta’s 699.

The recent head-to-head sample from 2025 leaned Atlanta, which won 8 of the last 13 meetings, but those games were not short on offense, with several results landing well above this number. That makes the 9.0 total interesting because López’s current run suppression points one way, while Peralta’s inconsistency and the Braves’ stronger lineup point the other. Peralta did handle Atlanta effectively in his June 14 start, so this total sits in a range that respects both the park and the gap in starter stability.