Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (2026-07-06). Shane Drohan vs Dustin May at Busch Stadium.
Drohan has been the steadier arm on the season, carrying a 3.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 57.2 innings with 9.21 K/9 against 2.81 BB/9. His recent form supports the season line: over his last four starts he has allowed just 7 earned runs in 20 innings, and his trend ERA is listed down with no blow-up starts recorded. May has the larger sample at 84.1 innings, but the profile is more volatile, with a 4.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.32 K/9, and 2.56 BB/9. His last four outings show that volatility clearly, ranging from a nine-inning shutout of San Diego to back-to-back rough starts against Kansas City and Atlanta in which he gave up 11 earned runs in only 2.2 innings.
Milwaukee brings the slightly better overall offense by OPS at .735 versus St. Louis at .722, and the Brewers have also scored far more runs, 449 to 403, while getting on base at a stronger .337 clip. The more meaningful team edge is on the mound, where Milwaukee owns a 3.35 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared with 4.14 and 1.33 for St. Louis, plus a much stronger 9.85 K/9. Recent form is decent on both sides, with the Brewers 6-4 in their last 10 and the Cardinals 5-5, although St. Louis has shown a wider scoring range lately with outputs of 17, 11, 5, 3, and 1 in a five-game stretch.
The recent head-to-head sample from 2025 is fairly balanced, with Milwaukee winning 7 of the last 13 meetings, and several of those games stayed in controlled scoring ranges despite a few spikes. That fits an 8.0 total that sits in the middle of this matchup: Drohan’s consistency and Milwaukee’s stronger staff lean toward run suppression, while May’s recent instability and the Cardinals’ power total of 99 homers keep the over in play. May did strike out 9 Brewers over 7 innings in their May 27 meeting, allowing just 1 earned run, which adds another layer to the total discussion.
