Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (2026-06-28). Brady Singer vs Mitch Keller at PNC Park.

Brady Singer enters this matchup with a season ERA of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.51 across 73 innings pitched, indicating a tendency to allow baserunners. His K/9 stands at 7.27, while his BB/9 is 3.08, suggesting a moderate strikeout rate coupled with some control issues. Recent starts show a fluctuating performance, with his last five outings including ERAs of 6.75, 5.00, 7.71, 5.60, and 5.32, demonstrating inconsistency and a struggle to keep runs off the board. Mitch Keller, on the other hand, boasts a slightly better season ERA of 4.89 and a WHIP of 1.32 over 88.1 innings. His K/9 is 7.03 and BB/9 is 3.26, comparable to Singer in terms of strikeout and walk rates. Keller's recent trend shows more stability, with ERAs of 0.00, 1.50, 1.00, 2.86, and 2.79 in his last five starts, indicating a pitcher who has been more effective at limiting earned runs. Keller also has a significantly higher quality start percentage at 66.7% compared to Singer's 33.3%, suggesting greater reliability in deeper outings.

Offensively, the Pittsburgh Pirates present a more potent lineup, evidenced by their 0.749 OPS and 420 runs scored, compared to the Cincinnati Reds' 0.700 OPS and 346 runs. The Pirates also hold a higher team batting average of 0.258 against the Reds' 0.227. In terms of pitching, the Pirates' staff has a superior team ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.30, allowing fewer home runs (80) than the Reds' pitching staff, which carries a 4.51 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and has surrendered 110 home runs. This suggests the Pirates possess an advantage in both run production and run prevention, potentially placing more pressure on Singer.

Looking at the head-to-head history from 2025, the Reds and Pirates have split their recent meetings, with the Reds winning 7 of 13 contests. Many of these games were low-scoring affairs, with several outcomes featuring combined runs under the current total line of 8.5, such as 2-1, 3-2, 1-3, and 0-1. However, there was also a high-scoring 14-8 game. The 8.5 total line for this matchup reflects a moderate expectation for offense, potentially influenced by both pitchers' season ERAs hovering around the high 4s, yet also considering Keller's recent strong performances that suggest he could suppress scoring.