New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals (2026-07-10). Ryan Weathers vs Carson Palmquist at Nationals Park.

Weathers brings the larger sample and the more established strikeout profile, working 92.1 innings across 17 starts with a 4.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.14 K/9, and 2.63 BB/9. His recent form is mixed but not collapsing: over his last four outings he has allowed 8 earned runs in 18 innings, with two strong starts of one earned run or fewer around two shorter, less efficient appearances, and his trend ERA is flagged up despite solid swing-and-miss. Palmquist has only 6.1 innings on the season, posting a 7.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP with 9.95 K/9 and 2.84 BB/9, so the strikeout and walk rates look playable but the workload is extremely limited. His last four appearances total just 6.1 innings, including a one-inning, four-earned-run outing on July 4, which leaves major uncertainty about length and bullpen dependence.

Offensively, Washington has actually been the more productive club by the numbers, carrying a .760 OPS and 508 runs versus New York’s .736 OPS and 448 runs. The Nationals also own the better batting average at .251 to .235, while the Yankees have drawn more walks, 356 to 324, which helps offset some contact issues. On the mound, New York has the clear edge at the team level with a 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP compared with Washington’s 4.76 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, and that gap matters given the likely need for Nationals relief coverage. Recent form points in opposite directions, with the Yankees at 3-7 over their last 10 and the Nationals at 6-4.

The recent head-to-head history from August 2025 leaned heavily toward New York, which swept three meetings and scored 26 runs in the process, including totals of 15, 6, and 12 runs in those games. That kind of scoring backdrop fits with a 10.0 total when one starter has a home-run issue and the other may not work deep into the game. At the same time, New York’s stronger overall pitching staff can act as a counterweight if Weathers gives them a steadier six innings.