Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets
Boston Red Sox at New York Mets (2026-07-10). Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean at Citi Field.
Gray has been one of the steadiest starters in either league, carrying a 2.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 89.2 innings with 8.23 strikeouts per nine against just 2.31 walks per nine. His recent run has been especially sharp, allowing only 5 earned runs across his last 27.1 innings while posting strikeout lines of 7, 9, 11, and 4, and his profile is backed by a 100 percent quality-start rate and no blowups. McLean brings more swing-and-miss with a 10.48 K/9 over 101.1 innings, and his 3.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP are still strong, though the 3.29 BB/9 gives him a narrower margin. His last four starts show the volatility and upside together: two scoreless outings, one two-run start, and one six-earned-run stumble, with the overall ERA trend still moving down.
Boston’s offense has been slightly more efficient by rate, entering with a .701 OPS versus New York’s .687, and the Red Sox have paired that with a strong recent 8-2 form. The Mets have produced more raw scoring, 394 runs to Boston’s 372, and they also hold the edge in home run output, 110 to 81, so their lineup still carries more one-swing damage even with the lower batting average and OPS. On the mound beyond the starters, Boston owns the better team run-prevention numbers with a 3.67 ERA and 1.23 WHIP compared with the Mets’ 4.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, while New York’s staff does miss more bats overall at 9.24 K/9.
The most recent head-to-head set in 2025 leaned low scoring, with Boston taking two of three and the three game totals landing at 6, 2, and 4 runs. That history lines up reasonably well with a 7.5 total when one side sends out Gray’s current form and the other counters with a strikeout-oriented arm in McLean, although New York’s greater home run volume adds some tension to any under-style setup. Citi Field and two starters with WHIPs near 1.10 point toward a game where baserunner management should be central.
