Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians (2026-06-28). Emerson Hancock vs Gavin Williams at Progressive Field.

Emerson Hancock enters this contest with a solid 3.60 ERA and an impressive 1.02 WHIP over 85 innings pitched this season, demonstrating strong control with a 2.01 BB/9. His strikeout rate sits at 8.58 K/9, and his recent trend metrics indicate a downward ERA trend and a high quality start percentage of 66.7, suggesting consistent performance. Gavin Williams, pitching for the Guardians, has a slightly higher 3.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 96.2 innings, featuring a robust 10.33 K/9 but also a higher 2.89 BB/9. Williams' recent ERA trend is upward, and his quality start percentage is lower at 33.3, indicating some recent struggles or inconsistency.

Offensively, the Seattle Mariners exhibit a slight edge with a .694 OPS and 337 runs scored, compared to the Cleveland Guardians' .673 OPS and 325 runs. Both teams struggle with batting average, with the Mariners at .230 and the Guardians at .227. On the pitching side, Seattle's staff has a collective 3.68 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, outperforming Cleveland's 3.77 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The Mariners have also allowed fewer home runs this season, 79 compared to the Guardians' 97, which could be a factor in this matchup.

The head-to-head history between these two teams in 2025 shows a relatively balanced series, with the Mariners winning four of six encounters. The total line for this game is set at 7.5 runs, which appears to align with the pitching matchup, featuring two starters who generally keep runs in check, particularly Hancock with his lower ERA and WHIP. Given the Mariners' slightly better offensive and pitching metrics, and Hancock's strong recent form, a lower-scoring affair could be anticipated.