INDEPENDENT MLB ANALYTICSINDEPENDENT ANALYTICS
ETLATYOBERLON
FinalFinal lineupsAL Central / AL West

Minnesota Twins 5, Houston Astros 4

Final Score and Game Recap

Final score, pitching lines and standings context.

8:10 PM ET · Daikin ParkStats updated Jun 29, 7:15 PM ETFinal lineups locked
T-Score49
Minnesota Twins
76–85 · 4th AL Central · T-Score 49
5
5–4
FINAL
Houston Astros
80–81 · 1st AL West · T-Score 53
4
T-Score53
FINAL

Matchup at a glance

PitcherStat calculation
CategoryComparisonWhy
Starting pitcherAstrosLambert owns the stronger overall starter profile, with the higher P-Score and better strikeout and baserunner rates.
Offense vs handEvenThe handedness splits are nearly even, with less than a .001 difference in OPS.
Recent formAstrosHouston has won 6 of its last 10 and owns the stronger recent run differential.
WeatherLow impact78°F, wind 4 mph, no precipitation expected at first pitch.

Starting pitchers

MIN
Zebby Matthews RHP
Zebby Matthews
Minnesota Twins
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
4.90
158th
WHIP
1.26
95th
K/9
8.01
118th
BB/9
2.69
67th
P-Score49i
FIP
4.80
HR/9
1.66
191st
OPS/R
0.691
IP
130.1
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA2.57
Road ERA6.93
Last 5 starts
ERA
4.15
QUALITY
START %
80%
(4 of 5)
DAYS
REST
46
HOU
Peter Lambert RHP
Peter Lambert
Houston Astros
2026 season (MLB rank among qualified starters)
ERA
3.87
87th
WHIP
1.26
94th
K/9
8.96
70th
BB/9
3.46
136th
P-Score56i
FIP
3.93
HR/9
1.00
73rd
OPS/R
0.712
IP
153.2
2026 ERA splits
Home ERA3.99
Road ERA3.65
Last 5 starts
ERA
2.76
QUALITY
START %
60%
(3 of 5)
DAYS
REST
73
How the starters differ
·Lambert allows the lower home-run rate: 1.00 vs 1.66 per nine.
·Lambert owns the lower FIP, 3.93 to 4.80.
·Matthews walks 0.8 fewer batters per nine innings.
·Matthews has completed a quality start in 67% of starts, compared with 50% for Lambert.
Advanced starter metricsERA−, FIP, WAR, career vs opponent
MetricMatthewsLambertNote
ERA−11494Park- and league-adjusted; 100 is average.
FIP4.803.93
WAR0.62.3Season value.

How the lineups match the starters' pitch mix

Pitch data coverage: partial. Usage and velocity only.

Matthews arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam36%95.2
Slider23%87.3
Changeup13%86.8
Cutter12%90.9
Curveball11%79.9
Sinker5%95.2
Lambert arsenal
PitchUsageVelo
Four-seam32%93.9
Changeup24%86.9
Slider11%85.6
Cutter10%91.6
Sinker10%93.4
Sweeper8%82.8
Slurve5%80.2
Curveball0%77.8

Team OPS vs opposing starter's hand

Twins vs RHP (Peter Lambert)
9th
in MLB
0.737OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000
Astros vs RHP (Zebby Matthews)
8th
in MLB
0.738OPS
.600.700.800.9001.000

Lineups

Final lineupsOrder from the stored snapshot; treat as unofficial until the card is filed.Full lineup page
Minnesota TwinsOfficial lineupvs RHP Peter Lambert
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Lambert (BvP)
1Trevor Larnach—–––No MLB historyNo history
2Brooks Lee—–––No MLB historyNo history
3Kody Clemens—–––No MLB historyNo history
4Josh Bell—–––No MLB historyNo history
5Royce Lewis—–––No MLB historyNo history
6Victor Caratini—–––No MLB historyNo history
7Ryan Kreidler—–––No MLB historyNo history
8Tristan Gray—–––No MLB historyNo history
9Luke Keaschall—–––No MLB historyNo history
1Trevor Larnach– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score2Brooks Lee– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score3Kody Clemens– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score4Josh Bell– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score5Royce Lewis– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score6Victor Caratini– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score7Ryan Kreidler– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score8Tristan Gray– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score9Luke Keaschall– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score
Houston AstrosOfficial lineupvs RHP Zebby Matthews
#HitterPosH-ScoreOPSHRvs RHPVs Matthews (BvP)
1Jose Altuve—–––No MLB historyNo history
2Yordan Alvarez—–––No MLB historyNo history
3Isaac Paredes—–––No MLB historyNo history
4Christian Walker—–––No MLB historyNo history
5Taylor Trammell—–––No MLB historyNo history
6Cam Smith—–––No MLB historyNo history
7Joey Loperfido—–––No MLB historyNo history
8Nick Allen—–––No MLB historyNo history
9Christian Vázquez—–––No MLB historyNo history
1Jose Altuve– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score2Yordan Alvarez– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score3Isaac Paredes– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score4Christian Walker– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score5Taylor Trammell– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score6Cam Smith– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score7Joey Loperfido– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score8Nick Allen– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score9Christian Vázquez– / – · – HRvs hand – · No MLB history · No history—H-Score

Team comparison

OffenseMINMIN·HOUHOU
AVG.244 16th.241 20th
OPS.719 16th.731 7th
Home runs185 13th225 1st
Runs733 12th725 13th
OBP.316 18th.314 20th
SLG.403 12th.417 5th
PitchingMINMIN·HOUHOU
1stMLB rank30th
ERA4.56vs4.48
MINHOU
WHIP1.36vs1.34
MINHOU
K/98.7vs8.8
MINHOU
HR Allowed183vs204
MINHOU
ResultsMINMIN·HOUHOU
+21721st
Run differential
+25915th
76–85 Record80–81
4–6 Last 106–4
Last 10 games
Minnesota Twins (4–6)
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
Houston Astros (6–4)
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
2026 head-to-head
Season Series
1—5
6 Games Played

Frequently asked

Who is starting for the Twins?+
Zebby Matthews (4.56 ERA, 3–5) is listed as the starter.
Who is starting for the Astros?+
Peter Lambert (3.28 ERA, 6–4) is listed as the starter.
What time does the game start?+
8:10 PM ET at Daikin Park.
Where is the game being played?+
Daikin Park, home of the Houston Astros.
Are the lineups confirmed?+
Not as official league cards. The orders shown are the current projected or last-posted lineups.
How have the Twins and Astros performed head-to-head?+
Season series: Astros 5–1 this season.
How do the starters compare on P-Score?+
Zebby Matthews is at 49; Peter Lambert is at 56. P-Score is PitcherStat's 0–100 season index for qualified starters.