Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (2026-06-29). Casey Mize vs Ryan Weathers at Yankee Stadium.

Casey Mize enters this contest with a solid 2.95 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 58 innings this season, demonstrating strong control with a 2.17 BB/9 and a respectable 9 K/9. His recent trend shows an upward movement in ERA, but his quality start percentage remains at 50%, indicating a capability for deeper outings. Ryan Weathers, for the Yankees, has a 3.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 86.2 innings, with a higher strikeout rate of 9.87 K/9 and a slightly elevated BB/9 of 2.49 compared to Mize. Weathers' ERA trend is flat, and his quality start percentage is lower at 33.3%, suggesting less consistency in extended appearances.

The Yankees offense presents a more potent threat, boasting a .749 OPS and 409 runs scored, significantly outperforming the Tigers' .710 OPS and 344 runs. New York also leads in home runs with 121 compared to Detroit's 95. On the pitching side, the Yankees' staff holds a superior 3.32 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while the Tigers' pitching unit has a 3.79 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The Yankees' recent form has been strong, with several wins, contrasting with the Tigers' more inconsistent stretch.

Recent head-to-head matchups between these two teams in 2025 were mixed, with both teams securing wins, including some high-scoring affairs. The total line of 7.5 for this game reflects a moderate expectation for offense, potentially influenced by Weathers' higher ERA and home run rate, despite Mize's generally strong performance. The Yankees' offensive power, combined with Weathers' tendency to allow home runs, could challenge Mize's ability to maintain his low ERA, while the Tigers' less potent offense faces a formidable Yankees pitching staff.