Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (2026-06-28). Tyler Phillips vs Kyle Leahy at Busch Stadium.

Tyler Phillips enters this contest with a season ERA of 3.09 and a WHIP of 1.37 across 58.1 innings, demonstrating a relatively solid performance despite a higher walk rate of 4.63 BB/9. His strikeout rate stands at 7.56 K/9, which is respectable, and his recent trend ERA is down, suggesting improving control or effectiveness. Conversely, Kyle Leahy has a season ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.51 over 76.1 innings pitched, indicating more struggles with baserunners and earned runs compared to Phillips. Leahy's K/9 is 7.31, similar to Phillips, but his BB/9 is lower at 3.3, which is a positive. However, Leahy's trend ERA is up, and he has shown an alternating pattern in his recent starts, including giving up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his last outing against the Marlins.

Offensively, both teams present similar profiles, with the Marlins holding a 0.714 OPS and 358 runs scored, while the Cardinals have a slightly higher 0.719 OPS and 360 runs. The Marlins have hit 73 home runs compared to the Cardinals' 88, suggesting the Cardinals possess slightly more power. On the pitching side, the Marlins' staff has a superior team ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.24, outperforming the Cardinals' team ERA of 4.30 and WHIP of 1.35. This suggests the Marlins generally have a more effective pitching staff overall, which could be a factor in limiting the Cardinals' offense.

Recent head-to-head matchups between these two clubs in 2025 were split, with each team securing three wins in six games. The scores ranged from low-scoring affairs like 2-0 and 1-7 to higher-scoring games such as 7-4 and 8-3. The total line for this specific game is not available, which makes it challenging to directly assess how the market views the expected run environment in relation to the starting pitchers, but the historical data shows variability in scoring.