Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees (2026-06-21). Chase Burns vs Elmer Rodríguez at Yankee Stadium.

Chase Burns enters this contest with a dominant season ERA of 2.01 and a WHIP of 1.02 across 80.2 innings pitched, complemented by a strong 10.6 K/9 and a manageable 2.9 BB/9. His recent trend shows a downward trajectory in ERA, indicating improving performance, and he maintains a 50% quality start percentage with no blow-up outings. Elmer Rodríguez, in contrast, has a significantly higher season ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.85 over just 13 innings, exhibiting a lower K/9 of 4.15 and a concerning 6.23 BB/9. Rodríguez has yet to record a quality start this season and has not faced the Reds previously, while Burns has limited the Yankees to minimal hits in prior relief appearances.

The Yankees' offense presents a formidable challenge, boasting a season OPS of 0.772 and 388 runs scored, significantly outperforming the Reds' 0.707 OPS and 321 runs. On the pitching side, New York's team ERA of 3.34 and WHIP of 1.18 are considerably better than Cincinnati's 4.63 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, suggesting a strong overall pitching advantage for the home team. The Yankees also exhibit a higher strikeout rate for their pitchers at 8.89 K/9 compared to the Reds' 7.9 K/9, further highlighting their pitching superiority.

Recent head-to-head matchups from 2025 show a split series, with the Reds winning two out of three games against the Yankees, though these games did not feature the current starting pitchers. The total line for this game is set at 8.5 runs, which appears to align with the disparity in pitching performance, particularly given Rodríguez's higher ERA and WHIP and the Yankees' potent offense. Burns' strong season metrics could suppress scoring from the Yankees, while Rodríguez's struggles could lead to increased offensive output from the Reds, potentially pushing the total towards the over.