Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays (2026-06-28). Merrill Kelly vs Drew Rasmussen at Tropicana Field.

Merrill Kelly enters this contest with a season ERA of 5.71 and a WHIP of 1.52 across 75.2 innings, indicating significant struggles with run prevention and baserunners. His strikeout rate of 5.23 K/9 is notably low, while his walk rate of 3.69 BB/9 is elevated, contributing to his high WHIP. Kelly's recent starts reflect inconsistency, with a trend ERA showing a downward trajectory, but a high blow-up rate of 33.3% and a quality start percentage of only 33.3%. Conversely, Drew Rasmussen has posted a strong season ERA of 2.62 and an excellent WHIP of 0.88 over 86 innings, demonstrating superior command and effectiveness. His K/9 rate of 9.31 is considerably higher than Kelly's, and his BB/9 rate of 1.57 is significantly lower, highlighting his ability to limit free passes. Rasmussen's trend ERA is also down, and he boasts a 0% blow-up rate, though his quality start percentage matches Kelly's at 33.3%.

The Diamondbacks' offense has produced 349 runs with a .694 OPS, indicating a middling offensive output, while their pitching staff carries a 4.32 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, suggesting vulnerability. The Rays, on the other hand, have a more potent offense, scoring 361 runs with a .727 OPS, and their pitching staff is more efficient with a 3.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Both teams have similar home run totals, with Arizona at 73 and Tampa Bay at 71, but the Rays exhibit better plate discipline with more walks and fewer strikeouts.

In their recent head-to-head matchups from April 2025, the Rays secured two wins against the Diamondbacks, with scores of 7-4 and 7-6, while Arizona managed one victory at 5-1. These past games suggest a tendency for higher-scoring affairs between these two teams, with two of the three games exceeding seven runs. The current total line of 7.5 for this matchup aligns with the historical scoring patterns observed in their previous encounters, despite the strong season ERA of Drew Rasmussen.