Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals

Houston Astros at Washington Nationals (2026-07-08). Spencer Arrighetti vs Foster Griffin at Nationals Park.

Arrighetti brings a 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 78 innings through 14 starts, with solid bat-missing ability at 9.12 K/9 but a less stable control profile at 4.38 BB/9. His recent run is mixed: over his last seven starts he has allowed 27 earned runs in 37 innings, and two of his last three outings featured six or more earned runs, which fits the upward ERA trend and a 40 percent blow-up rate. The most recent start was encouraging, though, as he held Tampa Bay to one run over six innings with only two hits allowed. Griffin has been the steadier arm, posting a 2.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 103.1 innings across 18 starts, while pairing 8.71 K/9 with a sharp 2.26 BB/9. His last seven starts underline that consistency: six of them were one earned run or fewer, including scoreless or near-scoreless work against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh, and his trend ERA is moving down with an 80 percent quality-start rate.

Offensively, Washington has the better full-season profile, carrying a .758 OPS and 500 runs versus Houston’s .727 OPS and 430 runs. The Nationals also hold small edges in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging, while both clubs show similar power and walk volume, with 130 home runs for Washington and 126 for Houston. On the mound beyond the starters, neither staff has separated much overall: Houston owns a 4.74 team ERA and 1.39 WHIP, while Washington sits at 4.80 and 1.40. Recent form is decent on both sides, with Houston 6-4 in its last 10 and Washington 6-4 as well, but both teams have also been involved in several higher-scoring games lately.

Last season’s head-to-head set produced two Houston wins in three games, with scores of 9-1, 7-4, and 1-2, so the recent series history showed both one low-total game and two results that cleared moderate numbers comfortably. That mixed scoring pattern fits this matchup: Griffin’s form points toward run suppression, while Arrighetti’s strikeout upside is balanced by walk risk and occasional home-run trouble. With a total of 9.0, the number reflects two lineups capable of damage against vulnerable bullpens, but it also asks whether Griffin can keep the game from turning into another late-innings scoring environment.