Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (2026-06-14). Casey Mize vs Gavin Williams at Progressive Field.

Casey Mize enters with a strong 2.27 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 47.2 innings this season, demonstrating excellent control with a 2.27 BB/9 and a low 0.38 HR/9. His recent outings include four starts with one or zero earned runs allowed, though a 4.1-inning, five-earned-run performance slightly skews his short-term average. Mize maintains a 50% quality start percentage, despite a reported upward trend in his ERA. Gavin Williams, for the Guardians, holds a 3.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 86.2 innings, featuring a higher strikeout rate at 10.28 K/9 but also a higher walk rate at 2.91 BB/9 and a more significant 1.35 HR/9. Williams has shown flashes of dominance with two 7-inning, one-earned-run starts recently, but a 16.7% blow-up rate and 33.3% quality start percentage suggest less consistent performance compared to Mize, despite his ERA also trending upwards according to metrics.

Offensively, the Detroit Tigers exhibit a slight edge with a 0.705 OPS and 76 home runs, contributing to 288 runs scored this season. The Cleveland Guardians, however, are nearly identical in run production with 289 runs, despite a slightly lower 0.689 OPS and 66 home runs. Both lineups are characterized by modest hitting statistics. On the mound, Cleveland's pitching staff holds a marginal advantage with a 3.75 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP, coupled with a solid 9.28 K/9. Detroit's pitching staff follows closely with a 3.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, alongside an 8.22 K/9. The Guardians enter this contest in better recent form, holding a 6-4 record over their last ten games, while the Tigers are 4-6 in the same span.

The historical head-to-head matchups between these two clubs in 2025 frequently featured lower scoring affairs, with ten out of thirteen games concluding with a combined run total of 7 or fewer. The Guardians held a significant advantage in these contests, winning nine of the thirteen meetings. The current total line of 7.5 appears consistent with this historical trend, especially considering the strong season ERAs of both starting pitchers and the generally modest offensive production from both the Tigers and the Guardians. This pitching matchup, featuring Mize's low HR/9 and Williams' strikeout ability, further supports expectations for a game where runs may be at a premium.

Kevin McGonigle has no MLB history against Gavin Williams. Among those with prior plate appearances, Colt Keith has performed strongly, going 4-for-11 in 13 PA with a .364 average and .826 OPS, while James Outman is 1-for-3 with a .333 average and .666 OPS. However, many other batters have struggled, including Riley Greene (2-for-14 in 16 PA, .143 AVG, .607 OPS), Gleyber Torres (1-for-8 in 9 PA, .125 AVG, .347 OPS), and Kerry Carpenter (1-for-7 in 8 PA, .143 AVG, .393 OPS). Dillon Dingler is hitless in 6 at-bats across 7 PA with a .143 OPS, and Spencer Torkelson is 1-for-10 in 11 PA with a .100 average and .382 OPS. Jake Rogers is 1-for-8 with a .125 average and .250 OPS.

David Fry has no MLB history against Casey Mize. Brayan Rocchio has an excellent record, going 3-for-5 in 6 PA with a .600 average and 1.867 OPS, while Player 672356 is 1-for-5 with a .200 average and 1.000 OPS. Kyle Manzardo is 1-for-5 with a .200 average and .400 OPS. Conversely, Travis Bazzana, Rhys Hoskins, and Patrick Bailey are all hitless in their prior at-bats, with Hoskins posting a .167 OPS in 6 PA. Daniel Schneemann and Steven Kwan each have two hits in 11 at-bats, both with a .182 average.

The away team features more batters with extensive prior history against the opposing starter, with eight players having faced Gavin Williams multiple times. The home team has seven batters with prior plate appearances against Casey Mize, though some have more limited history.